NAS100 · 2H · Kairos
MNQ 1 hafta öncesinin Perşembe günü oluşan NDOG'i takip ediyorum, fiyat burayı kazanırsa önce PWH sonra yukarıdaki likiditeler hedefim, Eylül ayının lowu alındıktan sonra yapılan akümülasyon da bullish tezime güvenimi…
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MNQ 1 hafta öncesinin Perşembe günü oluşan NDOG'i takip ediyorum, fiyat burayı kazanırsa önce PWH sonra yukarıdaki likiditeler hedefim, Eylül ayının lowu alındıktan sonra yapılan akümülasyon da bullish tezime güvenimi…
BTCUSD 4H Ekim başındaki 87.000 çift tepesinden beri her tepe bir öncekinin altında: önce 84.875, sonra 81.000. Çift tepeden çektiğim düşen trend çizgisine 21 Ekim'de değdi ve sert satış yedi. Şu an 79.600 civarındayız…
XAUUSD 1H En son takip ettiğimiz 4183 seviyelerinden 3975 lere kadar düşüş yaşadı. 3990 rejection şuanlık fiyatı tutmuş gözüküyor. Fiyatın ilk aksiyon alacağı nokta burası veya alttaki kesikli çizgi. Aşağıda EQL ve 3942…
$BTC yıllık açılışa yaklaştı, fiyatın bu bölgede ne yaptığı gözlemlenmeli.
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03This week
Key macro releases and central bank decisions.
| Monday, November 9 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 AM | RBA Hunter Speechshow explanationA central bank official’s speech. Remarks from the chair or governor can move rate expectations; those from non-voting members are mostly noise. The text isn’t known in advance, so spreads can widen mid-speech. Related guide: Rate decisions and central bank communication → | |||
| 10:00 AM | Balance of Tradeshow explanationGap between exports and imports; the current account adds services and investment income. A deficit signals reliance on foreign financing; watched for the CAD, AUD, JPY and TRY. The impact is mostly small. | €19.4B | €19.5B | |
| 10:00 AM | Exports MoMshow explanationGap between exports and imports; the current account adds services and investment income. A deficit signals reliance on foreign financing; watched for the CAD, AUD, JPY and TRY. The impact is mostly small. | -0.8% | ||
| 04:40 PM | Fed Bowman Speechshow explanationA central bank official’s speech. Remarks from the chair or governor can move rate expectations; those from non-voting members are mostly noise. The text isn’t known in advance, so spreads can widen mid-speech. Related guide: Rate decisions and central bank communication → | |||
| 06:00 PM | Fed Goolsbee Speechshow explanationA central bank official’s speech. Remarks from the chair or governor can move rate expectations; those from non-voting members are mostly noise. The text isn’t known in advance, so spreads can widen mid-speech. Related guide: Rate decisions and central bank communication → | |||
| 08:15 PM | Fed Barkin Speechshow explanationA central bank official’s speech. Remarks from the chair or governor can move rate expectations; those from non-voting members are mostly noise. The text isn’t known in advance, so spreads can widen mid-speech. Related guide: Rate decisions and central bank communication → | |||
| 08:15 PM | Fed Bowman Speechshow explanationA central bank official’s speech. Remarks from the chair or governor can move rate expectations; those from non-voting members are mostly noise. The text isn’t known in advance, so spreads can widen mid-speech. Related guide: Rate decisions and central bank communication → | |||
| 08:30 PM | BoE Gov Bailey Speechshow explanationA central bank official’s speech. Remarks from the chair or governor can move rate expectations; those from non-voting members are mostly noise. The text isn’t known in advance, so spreads can widen mid-speech. Related guide: Rate decisions and central bank communication → | |||
| 11:00 PM | Fed Goolsbee Speechshow explanationA central bank official’s speech. Remarks from the chair or governor can move rate expectations; those from non-voting members are mostly noise. The text isn’t known in advance, so spreads can widen mid-speech. Related guide: Rate decisions and central bank communication → | |||
| Tuesday, November 10 | ||||
| 02:30 AM | Westpac Consumer Confidence Changeshow explanationHousehold confidence surveys (Michigan, Conference Board, GfK, Westpac). The inflation-expectation sub-readings matter more than the headline; the Fed watches Michigan’s 1- and 5-year numbers. Currency and yields react. | -2.6% | -4.7% | |
| 02:30 AM | Westpac Consumer Confidence Indexshow explanationHousehold confidence surveys (Michigan, Conference Board, GfK, Westpac). The inflation-expectation sub-readings matter more than the headline; the Fed watches Michigan’s 1- and 5-year numbers. Currency and yields react. | 78.3 | 80.4 | |
| 02:30 AM | Household Spending MoM | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 02:30 AM | Household Spending YoY | -3.1% | -3.1% | |
| 02:50 AM | BoJ Summary of Opinionsshow explanationA summary of the last meeting’s discussion. The decision is already known; what matters is how split members were on rates. If it shifts expectations, the currency and yields move, usually modestly. Related guide: Rate decisions and central bank communication → | |||
| 02:50 AM | Current Accountshow explanationGap between exports and imports; the current account adds services and investment income. A deficit signals reliance on foreign financing; watched for the CAD, AUD, JPY and TRY. The impact is mostly small. | ¥3354.4B | ¥4062B | |
| 03:01 AM | BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoYshow explanationConsumer spending in stores and online; consumption is the main growth engine in most large economies. In the US the ex-autos and “control group” readings are watched; the control group feeds into GDP. | 1.2% | 1% | |
| 03:30 AM | NAB Business Confidenceshow explanationConfidence surveys of managers or analysts: ZEW, Ifo, Tankan, NAB, NFIB. They arrive before hard data and hint at direction; surprises are small. ZEW and Ifo matter for the euro, Tankan for the yen, NAB for the Aussie. | -14 | -13 | |
| 09:30 AM | Unemployment Rateshow explanationShare of the labor force that is looking for work and can’t find it. It comes in the same report as employment change; even a 0.1-point miss can shift rate expectations in that country’s currency. Related guide: Jobs data: NFP and unemployment → | 8.30% | 8.3% | |
| 10:00 AM | Industrial Production YoYshow explanationOutput from factories, mines and utilities, plus capacity utilization. Monthly moves are small and often revised; it confirms or contradicts the manufacturing picture. Currency impact is limited. | -0.3% | -1.9% | |
| 12:00 PM | Fed Waller Speechshow explanationA central bank official’s speech. Remarks from the chair or governor can move rate expectations; those from non-voting members are mostly noise. The text isn’t known in advance, so spreads can widen mid-speech. Related guide: Rate decisions and central bank communication → | |||
| 04:15 PM | ADP Employment Change Weeklyshow explanationADP’s private-sector payrolls estimate. Treated as an NFP preview, though its track record is patchy: unless the miss is large, the move fades quickly. The weekly version shows the recent average change in jobs. Related guide: Jobs data: NFP and unemployment → | 16.75K | ||
| 04:30 PM | Core Inflation Rate MoMshow explanationPrice change in the consumer basket; the core version strips out food and energy. It moves rate expectations most directly: a miss against consensus quickly moves that currency and its bond yields. Related guide: Inflation data: CPI, PCE and PPI → | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 04:30 PM | Core Inflation Rate YoYshow explanationPrice change in the consumer basket; the core version strips out food and energy. It moves rate expectations most directly: a miss against consensus quickly moves that currency and its bond yields. Related guide: Inflation data: CPI, PCE and PPI → | 2.5% | 2.6% | |
| 04:30 PM | Inflation Rate MoMshow explanationPrice change in the consumer basket; the core version strips out food and energy. It moves rate expectations most directly: a miss against consensus quickly moves that currency and its bond yields. Related guide: Inflation data: CPI, PCE and PPI → | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 04:30 PM | Inflation Rate YoYshow explanationPrice change in the consumer basket; the core version strips out food and energy. It moves rate expectations most directly: a miss against consensus quickly moves that currency and its bond yields. Related guide: Inflation data: CPI, PCE and PPI → | 3.7% | 3.7% | |
| 04:30 PM | CPIshow explanationPrice change in the consumer basket; the core version strips out food and energy. It moves rate expectations most directly: a miss against consensus quickly moves that currency and its bond yields. Related guide: Inflation data: CPI, PCE and PPI → | 337 | 336.94 | |
| 04:30 PM | CPI s.ashow explanationPrice change in the consumer basket; the core version strips out food and energy. It moves rate expectations most directly: a miss against consensus quickly moves that currency and its bond yields. Related guide: Inflation data: CPI, PCE and PPI → | 337 | 336.30 | |
| 05:35 PM | Fed Logan Speechshow explanationA central bank official’s speech. Remarks from the chair or governor can move rate expectations; those from non-voting members are mostly noise. The text isn’t known in advance, so spreads can widen mid-speech. Related guide: Rate decisions and central bank communication → | |||
| 09:30 PM | Fed Bowman Speechshow explanationA central bank official’s speech. Remarks from the chair or governor can move rate expectations; those from non-voting members are mostly noise. The text isn’t known in advance, so spreads can widen mid-speech. Related guide: Rate decisions and central bank communication → | |||
| 09:30 PM | Fed Schmid Speechshow explanationA central bank official’s speech. Remarks from the chair or governor can move rate expectations; those from non-voting members are mostly noise. The text isn’t known in advance, so spreads can widen mid-speech. Related guide: Rate decisions and central bank communication → | |||
| Wednesday, November 11 | ||||
| 12:30 AM | API Crude Oil Stock Changeshow explanationWeekly US crude, gasoline and distillate stocks (EIA on Wednesday, API on Tuesday evening). A bigger-than-expected draw lifts WTI and Brent, a build pushes them down; oil and the CAD react. Related guide: Commodity markets: gold, silver and oil → | -5.267M | ||
| 02:30 AM | Fed Bowman Speechshow explanationA central bank official’s speech. Remarks from the chair or governor can move rate expectations; those from non-voting members are mostly noise. The text isn’t known in advance, so spreads can widen mid-speech. Related guide: Rate decisions and central bank communication → | |||
| 03:30 AM | Home Loans QoQ | -6.0% | -1.9% | |
| 03:30 AM | Investment Lending for Homes | -14.0% | -10.2% | |
| 12:00 PM | Industrial Production MoMshow explanationOutput from factories, mines and utilities, plus capacity utilization. Monthly moves are small and often revised; it confirms or contradicts the manufacturing picture. Currency impact is limited. | 0.7% | -1.3% | |
| 12:45 PM | ECB President Lagarde Speechshow explanationA central bank official’s speech. Remarks from the chair or governor can move rate expectations; those from non-voting members are mostly noise. The text isn’t known in advance, so spreads can widen mid-speech. Related guide: Rate decisions and central bank communication → | |||
| 03:00 PM | MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rateshow explanationMortgage applications and average mortgage rates (MBA and Freddie Mac in the US). Mortgage rates track long-term bond yields. It rarely moves markets; it shows how much high rates are suppressing housing demand. | 7.3% | ||
| Thursday, November 12 | ||||
| 02:30 AM | RBA Baker Speechshow explanationA central bank official’s speech. Remarks from the chair or governor can move rate expectations; those from non-voting members are mostly noise. The text isn’t known in advance, so spreads can widen mid-speech. Related guide: Rate decisions and central bank communication → | |||
| 03:01 AM | RICS House Price Balanceshow explanationHouse price indices (Case-Shiller, FHFA, Halifax, Nationwide). Case-Shiller lags by two to three months; housing costs feed into inflation from here. Market reaction is small. | -32% | -32% | |
| 04:30 AM | BOJ Asada Speechshow explanationA central bank official’s speech. Remarks from the chair or governor can move rate expectations; those from non-voting members are mostly noise. The text isn’t known in advance, so spreads can widen mid-speech. Related guide: Rate decisions and central bank communication → | |||
| 10:00 AM | GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prelshow explanationTotal goods and services produced in a period, the official growth measure. It arrives after the period ends, so the first (advance) estimate moves markets most, revisions less. Misses show up in the currency and yields. | 0.7% | 0.5% | |
| 10:00 AM | GDP Growth Rate YoY Prelshow explanationTotal goods and services produced in a period, the official growth measure. It arrives after the period ends, so the first (advance) estimate moves markets most, revisions less. Misses show up in the currency and yields. | 1.7% | 1.4% | |
| 10:00 AM | GDP MoMshow explanationTotal goods and services produced in a period, the official growth measure. It arrives after the period ends, so the first (advance) estimate moves markets most, revisions less. Misses show up in the currency and yields. | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 10:00 AM | Business Investment QoQ Prel | -0.2% | 1.8% | |
| 10:00 AM | GDP 3-Month Avgshow explanationTotal goods and services produced in a period, the official growth measure. It arrives after the period ends, so the first (advance) estimate moves markets most, revisions less. Misses show up in the currency and yields. | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 10:00 AM | Goods Trade Balanceshow explanationGap between exports and imports; the current account adds services and investment income. A deficit signals reliance on foreign financing; watched for the CAD, AUD, JPY and TRY. The impact is mostly small. | £-19.2B | £-18.01B | |
| 10:00 AM | Goods Trade Balance Non-EUshow explanationGap between exports and imports; the current account adds services and investment income. A deficit signals reliance on foreign financing; watched for the CAD, AUD, JPY and TRY. The impact is mostly small. | £ -8.8B | £-5.29B | |
| 10:00 AM | Industrial Production MoMshow explanationOutput from factories, mines and utilities, plus capacity utilization. Monthly moves are small and often revised; it confirms or contradicts the manufacturing picture. Currency impact is limited. | -0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 10:00 AM | Manufacturing Production MoMshow explanationOutput from factories, mines and utilities, plus capacity utilization. Monthly moves are small and often revised; it confirms or contradicts the manufacturing picture. Currency impact is limited. | -0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 12:00 PM | ECB Economic Bulletin | |||
| 04:30 PM | Initial Jobless Claimsshow explanationApplications for unemployment benefits, the fastest read on layoffs. Weekly in the US (Thursdays), monthly in the UK. The weekly series is noisy, so the 4-week average is what counts. Related guide: Jobs data: NFP and unemployment → | 195K | 189K | |
| 05:00 PM | Fed Hammack Speechshow explanationA central bank official’s speech. Remarks from the chair or governor can move rate expectations; those from non-voting members are mostly noise. The text isn’t known in advance, so spreads can widen mid-speech. Related guide: Rate decisions and central bank communication → | |||
| 06:00 PM | Existing Home Salesshow explanationNew, existing and pending home sales. The data most sensitive to mortgage rates; pending sales lead existing ones. Bond yields mostly set the direction, and it rarely moves the market itself. | 3.98M | 3.99M | |
| 06:00 PM | Existing Home Sales MoMshow explanationNew, existing and pending home sales. The data most sensitive to mortgage rates; pending sales lead existing ones. Bond yields mostly set the direction, and it rarely moves the market itself. | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 06:00 PM | Fed Barr Speechshow explanationA central bank official’s speech. Remarks from the chair or governor can move rate expectations; those from non-voting members are mostly noise. The text isn’t known in advance, so spreads can widen mid-speech. Related guide: Rate decisions and central bank communication → | |||
| 07:30 PM | Fed Goolsbee Speechshow explanationA central bank official’s speech. Remarks from the chair or governor can move rate expectations; those from non-voting members are mostly noise. The text isn’t known in advance, so spreads can widen mid-speech. Related guide: Rate decisions and central bank communication → | |||
| 08:00 PM | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Changeshow explanationWeekly US crude, gasoline and distillate stocks (EIA on Wednesday, API on Tuesday evening). A bigger-than-expected draw lifts WTI and Brent, a build pushes them down; oil and the CAD react. Related guide: Commodity markets: gold, silver and oil → | -0.865M | ||
| 08:00 PM | EIA Gasoline Stocks Changeshow explanationWeekly US crude, gasoline and distillate stocks (EIA on Wednesday, API on Tuesday evening). A bigger-than-expected draw lifts WTI and Brent, a build pushes them down; oil and the CAD react. Related guide: Commodity markets: gold, silver and oil → | -0.222M | ||
| 09:10 PM | Fed Daly Speechshow explanationA central bank official’s speech. Remarks from the chair or governor can move rate expectations; those from non-voting members are mostly noise. The text isn’t known in advance, so spreads can widen mid-speech. Related guide: Rate decisions and central bank communication → | |||
| 10:00 PM | Monthly Budget Statement | $-298.0B | $-27B | |
| 10:30 PM | ECB President Lagarde Speechshow explanationA central bank official’s speech. Remarks from the chair or governor can move rate expectations; those from non-voting members are mostly noise. The text isn’t known in advance, so spreads can widen mid-speech. Related guide: Rate decisions and central bank communication → | |||
| Friday, November 13 | ||||
| 02:30 AM | Fed Williams Speechshow explanationA central bank official’s speech. Remarks from the chair or governor can move rate expectations; those from non-voting members are mostly noise. The text isn’t known in advance, so spreads can widen mid-speech. Related guide: Rate decisions and central bank communication → | |||
| 10:00 AM | Wholesale Prices MoMshow explanationChange in the prices producers charge, seen as a lead indicator for consumer inflation. It rarely moves markets like CPI; it lands close to CPI and can reinforce or undermine expectations for that print. Related guide: Inflation data: CPI, PCE and PPI → | 0.4% | 1.9% | |
| 10:00 AM | Wholesale Prices YoYshow explanationChange in the prices producers charge, seen as a lead indicator for consumer inflation. It rarely moves markets like CPI; it lands close to CPI and can reinforce or undermine expectations for that print. Related guide: Inflation data: CPI, PCE and PPI → | 9.1% | 8.7% | |
| 12:00 PM | Balance of Tradeshow explanationGap between exports and imports; the current account adds services and investment income. A deficit signals reliance on foreign financing; watched for the CAD, AUD, JPY and TRY. The impact is mostly small. | €1.85B | €1.773B | |
| 01:00 PM | Balance of Tradeshow explanationGap between exports and imports; the current account adds services and investment income. A deficit signals reliance on foreign financing; watched for the CAD, AUD, JPY and TRY. The impact is mostly small. | €-4.5B | €-16.1B | |
| 01:00 PM | Employment Change QoQ Prelshow explanationNet jobs added or lost in a month, released with the unemployment rate. It can move AUD, CAD and GBP sharply in the first minutes; the full-time versus part-time split gets watched too. Related guide: Jobs data: NFP and unemployment → | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 01:00 PM | Employment Change YoY Prelshow explanationNet jobs added or lost in a month, released with the unemployment rate. It can move AUD, CAD and GBP sharply in the first minutes; the full-time versus part-time split gets watched too. Related guide: Jobs data: NFP and unemployment → | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 04:30 PM | PPI MoMshow explanationChange in the prices producers charge, seen as a lead indicator for consumer inflation. It rarely moves markets like CPI; it lands close to CPI and can reinforce or undermine expectations for that print. Related guide: Inflation data: CPI, PCE and PPI → | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 04:30 PM | Core PPI MoMshow explanationChange in the prices producers charge, seen as a lead indicator for consumer inflation. It rarely moves markets like CPI; it lands close to CPI and can reinforce or undermine expectations for that print. Related guide: Inflation data: CPI, PCE and PPI → | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 06:50 PM | Fed Bowman Speechshow explanationA central bank official’s speech. Remarks from the chair or governor can move rate expectations; those from non-voting members are mostly noise. The text isn’t known in advance, so spreads can widen mid-speech. Related guide: Rate decisions and central bank communication → | |||
| 08:00 PM | Fed Daly Speechshow explanationA central bank official’s speech. Remarks from the chair or governor can move rate expectations; those from non-voting members are mostly noise. The text isn’t known in advance, so spreads can widen mid-speech. Related guide: Rate decisions and central bank communication → | |||
| Saturday, November 14 | ||||
| 03:00 AM | Fed Jefferson Speechshow explanationA central bank official’s speech. Remarks from the chair or governor can move rate expectations; those from non-voting members are mostly noise. The text isn’t known in advance, so spreads can widen mid-speech. Related guide: Rate decisions and central bank communication → | |||
04Feed
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