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Recession signal flashes on Oxford Economics' US indicator, but spending shows no sign of cracking

A recession signal against a backdrop of strong data makes it a useful counterpoint for bond markets. It gives Treasury bulls an argument just as 10-year yields sit above 5.2% and Fed hike odds are rising. Markets are unlikely to react much for now, because Oxford itself plays down the signal and current data points the other way. The warning matters more as a sign of what could go wrong if…

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