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French inflation jumps in September as HICP rises to 3.4%

France September preliminary CPI +3.0% vs +2.8% y/y expected Prior +2.4% France September preliminary HICP +3.4% vs +3.1% y/y expected Prior +2.6% The breakdownThe pickup in French inflation was fairly broad, although energy remains the standout driver. Energy prices accelerated to +21.2% y/y from +16.7% in August, reflecting higher petroleum-product and gas prices. Services inflation also picked…

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What are the main events for today?

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we get the French and German inflation data. The French HICP Y/Y is expected at 3.2% vs 2.6% prior, but the focus will be on the core measure which ticked lower to 1.1% in the prior month. The ECB is currently debating whether a rate hike in October is warranted, so higher than expected underlying inflation in the Eurozone will likely prompt a rate hike…

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Germany retail sales rebound 1.3% in August after July slump

Germany August retail sales +1.3% vs +1.5% m/m expected Prior -3.4% The breakdownThe rebound here is notable, even if it misses on forecasts by a little. It at least substantiates that the drop in July ties much to a heavy decline in petrol station sales, following the end of the fuel discount that was in effect during May and June. Having said that, petrol station sales were flat in August.…

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German import prices jump 1.0% in August as cost pressures build

Germany August import prices +1.0% vs +0.7% m/m expected Prior +0.2% Germany August import prices +8.3% vs +8.0% y/y expected Prior +6.8% The breakdownImport prices rose another 1.0% on the month in August, pushing the annual rate up sharply to 8.3% from 6.8%. This marks the strongest annual increase since December 2022. Energy remains the main driver, with import energy prices up 43.0% y/y. But…

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UK Q2 GDP revised higher to 0.5% q/q from 0.4%

UK Q2 final GDP +0.5% vs +0.4% q/q prelim Prior (Q1) +0.6% UK Q2 final GDP +1.4% vs +1.2% y/y prelim Prior (Q1) +0.9% The breakdownIt is a mild revision higher to the initial estimate, reaffirming a more resilient UK economic picture in the second quarter. The services sector in particular held up relatively well, with output increasing by 0.6% during the quarter and estimated to be 1.7% higher…

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