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MUFG: US CPI seen at 3.6%, core must surprise to revive an October Fed hike

MUFG’s framing underlines that energy is almost the entire story behind rising US headline inflation since the Iran conflict began, keeping crude prices tightly linked to Fed expectations. The core reading is the trigger for rates markets: an in-line 0.2% would likely keep October hike pricing subdued and leave the dollar and Treasury yields range-bound, while a repeat of August’s 0.3% would…

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