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Japan wholesale inflation misses at 6.8% but stays high enough to keep BOJ hike alive

The miss trims some urgency from the hike narrative, but an annual pace near 7% and surging import costs leave the case for tightening intact, keeping Japanese yields and BOJ pricing sensitive to any hawkish signals. The weak yen is the key amplifier: with oil prices elevated by the Iran war, every leg lower in the currency raises the yen cost of energy and feeds back into pipeline inflation. A…

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IMF’s Georgieva calls AI a slow-moving tsunami (again) for jobs as graduates feel the first hit

Georgieva’s framing of AI as both a demand and an investment shock lines up with this week’s hawkish Fed commentary, which also pointed to AI-driven capital spending as a source of persistent inflation pressure, strengthening the case that the AI boom keeps rates higher for longer. Her estimate that AI investment could add half a point to a full point to growth in advanced Asian economies…

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UK retail sales beat forecasts but fuel bill jump of 17% shows squeeze on shoppers

The data offer little to change the picture for sterling or gilts on their own, but the mix carries a stagflationary edge: households are spending more on fuel while volumes in discretionary categories stay subdued. A near-17% jump in fuel spending shows how the oil and diesel shock is feeding into household budgets, which keeps upside risk on UK inflation even as underlying demand looks soft.…

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