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Spain September CPI confirmed at 4.9% as rising core inflation adds to ECB rate hike pressure

Spain September final CPI +4.9% vs +4.9% y/y prelim Prior +4.3% Spain September final HICP +5.0% vs +5.0% y/y prelim Prior +4.6% Spain September core CPI +3.1% y/y Prior +2.9% The final report confirms another uncomfortable rise in Spanish inflation in September, with headline annual inflation rising to 4.9% from 4.3% in August. The harmonised reading also jumps further to clip the 5% mark, the…

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What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the…

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What are the main events for today?

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than the final Spanish CPI report. The market focuses more on preliminary data, so the final readings are almost never a market-moving release. Moreover, the data won't change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted. The price action might remain mostly rangebound ahead of the US CPI report, as…

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German wholesale prices continue to push higher in September, keeping inflation risks in focus

Germany September wholesale prices +1.9% m/m Prior +0.9% Germany September wholesale prices +8.7% y/y Prior +6.8% The annual estimate indicates that German wholesale prices are 8.7% higher in September this year compared to the same month a year ago. That marks the highest annual price jump since February 2023 and will add to inflation concerns in the German economy. Much of the price jump this…

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