The analysis adds a structural layer to an inflation backdrop already strained by energy, which argues against easing and supports the case for central banks on tightening paths, including the Fed and the Bank of Japan, to keep a hawkish bias into 2027. Japan’s projected 0.3 point boost is notable ahead of this week’s BoJ meeting, where the key question is whether underlying inflation has reached…
The Canadian dollar had some deal optimism built in after the weekend remarks from Washington, so Carney’s comments and the Semafor report remove part of that support and leave USD/CAD sensitive to further trade headlines. A deal that eases retaliatory tariffs would still be a positive for Canadian exporters and cross-border supply chains, so any concrete breakthrough could still bring a sharp…
At the close: US stock markets climb Monday as Anthropic files for IPO US and Canada working on deal to ease tariffs on Canadian steel and auto imports The once Magnificent 7 are not so magnificent, but they still are large cap technology movers Saudi Arabia offers cash to Houthis to stop attacks - report The cost of intelligence is collapsing US Treasury sells $69 billion of 2-year notes at a…
The services PPI is rarely a big mover for the yen on its own, but a reading at or above 3.7% would reinforce December hike pricing and lend modest support to the yen and short-dated JGB yields into Friday. A downside surprise would carry more weight than usual, coming after the sharp September slowdown in goods producer prices, and could lean against the yen by encouraging talk of a slower BoJ…
I'll get a preview posted for the Japanese data soon (ADDED, here it is: Japan services PPI preview: 3.7% pace in focus ahead of Friday’s BoJ decision ). In brief, while the services PPI is rarely a big mover for the yen on its own, but a reading at or above 3.7% would reinforce December hike pricing and lend modest support to the yen and short-dated JGB yields into Friday. This article was…
False reports of 'a Canada-USA trade deal' aren't far off from the number of reports about 'peace in Hormuz' so I would take this one with a grain of salt. There has been some noise over the weekend about new trade negotiations led by Lutnick. This report from Reuters cites two Canadian and four American sources that say the sides are talking about reduced tariffs on autos and steel. They're…
An extraordinary report from Israel Hayom says Saudi Arabia is seeking a ceasefire with the Houthis through a deal that would see $1 billion transferred to the Iranian-backed group via Tehran. Citing unnamed Gulf diplomatic sources, the newspaper says Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman made a visit to Tehran to negotiate the agreement as part of today's four-way meeting with Turkey…
OpenAI is just out with a new model named GPT 6.1 Terra. This isn't as strong as GPT-6 Astra but it's far more efficient and it gets to the heart of where AI is headed. AI is becoming a commodity faster than it is becoming an indispensable service. Already we have the Sol model, which is near Astra at a fifth of the price but now we have Terra, which cuts the price in half again. OpenAI also…
High yield: 4.708% WI level at the time of the auction: 4.705% Tail: 0.3 basis points vs the average of a 0.2-basis-point stop-through Bid to cover: 2.59X vs the average of 2.64X Directs: 41.32% vs the average of 30.4% Indirects: 45.68% vs the average of 58.3% Dealers: 13.0% vs the average of 11.3% Auction grade: C− The auction was a little below average. The high yield came in 0.3 basis points…
Iran hosted the first four-way meeting of Iran, Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia in Tehran today, according to Fars. The group released a short statement afterwards, noting that they had agreed to continuing talks. The lack of detail is naturally frustrating but this is undoubtedly a push to provide some kind of durable peace in the region. Attendees: Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman…
Prior was +9.8 Employment 11.6 vs 15.1 prior capex 11.9 vs 8.5 prior New orders 9.3 vs 30.7 prior Prices paid 55.3 vs 52.2 prior Future index 38.1 vs 20.8 prior The survey improved but that new orders reading is sending a conflicting signal from the future index. The comments in the report are often telling: Beverage and tobacco product manufacturing We continue to see pressure on profitability.…
Anthropic has filed the IPO that was rumored to be coming today. An interesting bit of trivia is the ‘ant’ mythology. South Korean retail investors were dubbed ‘ants’ back in the 1980s, a put-down they eventually wore as a badge of honour. The term has gone global since COVID, and especially this year as the Kospi went parabolic. Separately, the people at Anthropic have long called themselves…
Headlines: Major central banks take centre stage this week but will there be any surprises? Oil retreats as Trump refrains from striking Iran over the weekend; risk of attacks keeps the market supported Chart of the day: Gold price tests $4,000 support, is a deeper correction looming? Gold could rebound in the near-term as growth and US strikes fears subside; eyes on the FOMC next European stock…
The UK autumn budget is coming up on 28 October, just a week before the BOE's next monetary policy decision . And with inflation concerns still hanging over the economy, the government's fiscal plans could have a say in how interest rate expectations develop over the coming months. For now, traders are pricing in roughly 99% odds of a 25 bps rate hike at the November meeting next week. So unless…
Germany October Ifo business climate index 90.2 vs 90.0 expected Prior 89.9 Germany October Ifo current conditions index 88.8 vs 89.9 expected Prior 89.5 Germany October Ifo expectations index 91.6 vs 90.0 expected Prior 90.4 The breakdownThe survey continues to reaffirm a further improvement in German business sentiment, one that is especially backed by stronger a stronger outlook for the months…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the only highlight is the German IFO survey which is expected to remain unchanged at 89.9. The IFO is generally correlated with the German Composite PMI, so we could get lower than expected figures. The data won't change anything for the ECB though, so the market reaction will likely be muted. The risk sentiment has improved a bit as the expectations of a…
This is just a quick heads up for traders before we get too far into the new trading week. If you're wondering why European markets seem to be opening a little later than usual today, well it is because we're back to that time of the year again. Daylight saving time ended across most of Europe over the weekend, with clocks moving back one hour on Sunday, 25 October. That means the UK is now back…
Brazil ETF tumbles nearly 15% in Tokyo after Lula’s comeback runoff win Saudi Arabia to store crude in Singapore caverns from 2027 as Hormuz disruption bites Goldman’s 79-tonne central bank gold estimate goes mainstream as reserves shift to London BOJ to hold at 1.25%, but Ueda signals further hikes toward neutral PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7162 (vs. estimate at 6.6691) Gold…
The Tokyo ETF move is an early and thin-volume signal, so the real test comes when Brazilian markets open, with the real, the local rates curve and the Bovespa likely to bear the brunt of any repricing. Goldman Sachs’ figures describe an extreme scenario rather than a base case, but they frame the scale of the potential move, with the long end of the curve and the currency most exposed.…
The proposal adds to already tense US-China relations and keeps headline risk elevated for Chinese technology and biotech stocks, including US-listed ADRs and the Hang Seng Tech index. Biotech is the sector most directly exposed, since it is the newly targeted industry and has relied more heavily on cross-border funding than areas already under restriction. Beijing has not named the…
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