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Australia CPI, September 2026 / Q3 Quarterly (Q3) CPI q/q: 1.3% vs. 1.3% expected (prior 0.6%) CPI y/y: 3.9% vs. 3.9% expected (prior 3.9%) Trimmed mean q/q: 1.0% vs. 1.0% expected (prior 0.8%) Trimmed mean y/y: 3.7% vs. 3.6% expected (prior 3.5%) Monthly (September) CPI m/m: 0.8% vs. 0.7% expected (prior 0.4%) CPI y/y: 3.9% vs. 4.2% expected (prior 4.0%) CPI index: 104.34 (prior 103.50) Trimmed…
A sharp slowdown in supply growth would ease one source of pressure on bond markets after a heavy 2026, which could help keep corporate spreads tight if demand holds up. AI borrowing stays the main swing factor for supply: with capex expected to top $1.3 trillion, hyperscaler issuance will keep testing investor appetite for technology credit. The reference to the Middle East war links the outlook…
US September durable goods orders +1.8% vs +1.7% expected US FHFA Monthly home prices index 0.3% vs 0.2% estimate US August Case-Shiller 20-city house price index +2.7% y/y vs +2.6% expected October US consumer confidence 91.7 vs 81.0 expected US New home sales for September 0.676M annualized vs 0.650M estimate US October Richmond Fed -2 vs -2 expected Flávio Bolsonaro reportedly flees Brazil for…
Flávio Bolsonaro is reportedly en route to the United States, according to allies cited by Folha de S.Paulo. That comes just two days after he lost the presidential runoff to Lula, and after the Supreme Court ordered him to surrender his passports amid criminal investigations. Brazilian authorities then cancelled his Brazilian passport. Allies say he went out through Argentina. Nothing about the…
Manufacturing shipments 0 vs -5 last month Other details: Employment 3 versus 7 last month Wages 20 versus 17 last month Prices paid 7.12 versus 7.08 last month Prices received 5.27 versus 4.19 last month New orders -8 versus -6 last month Backlog of orders -21 versus -10 last month Capacity utilization -7 versus -7 last month Capital expenditures -12 versus -7 last month Services expenditure -19…
Prior was 81.9 (revised to 84.2) Present situation 120.4 vs 111.8 prior Expectations 72.6 vs 65.7 prior This is a nice jump but it comes after the worst reading since 2014 so it's still at extremely depressed levels. In any case, I struggle to see the value of this indicator as anything but a political barometer. That's valuable ahead of the midterms but it doesn't tell us much about spending.…
Prior month 0.684M annualized Details: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
Prior was +2.5% y/y 20-city house price index +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected Mortgage rates at 7.5% aren't doing any favors for the housing market. For background, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the best-known measure of US house prices. They’re published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9 am ET and carry a roughly two-month lag, so a release in late October covers August. The…
Prior month 0.3% Details of the report US August FHFA house prices rise 0.3% as expected; annual growth slows to 2.4% House prices MoM: +0.3% vs +0.3% expected. Prior revised to +0.2% from +0.3%. House prices YoY: +2.4% vs +2.6% expected. Prior revised to +2.6% from +2.5%. House Price Index: 444.6 vs 443.5 expected. Prior revised to 443.5 from 443.2. US home prices increased 0.3% in August,…
Prior was 0.0% Ex-transport +0.5% vs +0.6% expected Prior ex-transport +0.3% Ex-defense +2.2% vs +0.1% prior Non-defense capital goods orders ex-air +0.5% vs +0.7% expected Prior +1.6% Durable goods orders have been chopping sideways for much of the past year and today's report is more of the same. it's a nice climb but it comes after months of stagnation. The core number is better but this data…
Headlines: FOMC Preview: A hawkish hold as markets watch for signals about timing and extent of further tightening Why the Federal Reserve matters more to crypto market than many investors realise Oil consolidates around recent highs as fears of imminent US strikes ease. What's next? ECB rate outlook grows more complicated as bank lending conditions tighten Bitcoin at risk of a big correction…
France October consumer confidence 80 vs 85 expected Prior 86; revised to 85 That's a major blow. French household confidence falls to its lowest since 2013 in October as fiscal worries and concerns over the country's public finances weigh heavily on sentiment. That is not a good look as the index strays further away from the long-term average of 100, in which we haven't seen since December 2021.…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low-tier releases like the French consumer confidence and the Spanish unemployment rate. The data won't change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted. The risk sentiment is neutral to bearish at the moment given the near-term risks like the FOMC decision, the US midterm elections…
There is a bit of a welcome relief in global bonds to start the new week, particularly in Europe after Moody's affirmed France's Aa3 credit rating. Meanwhile, Treasury yields have also settled down a fair bit after an extremely volatile period earlier this month. But in looking at where things are right now, there is still plenty of tension lurking beneath the surface. For one, 10-year Treasury…
European traders will be greeted with a rather bare economic calendar when they get to their desks today, and I reckon that might suit some market players just fine considering what is on the agenda later this week. In terms of data releases, we only have French consumer confidence for October and the ECB's survey on euro area lending for September. Otherwise, markets will largely be left to…
Asia firms into Tokyo lunch: Japan and Korea stocks rise, AUD and NZD gain after Nasdaq lead Ethereum Foundation “dump” is a $6.4m treasury sale, not a crisis South Korea Q3 GDP grows 1.0%, beating forecasts as AI chip boom lifts exports China September industrial profits jump 14.4% y/y, rebounding from 4.2% in August Japan services PPI picks up to 3.7% as August revised lower, backing BoJ hike…
The rebound offers a modest positive surprise for Chinese assets at a time when sentiment is fragile, with onshore equities in a bear market and Morgan Stanley warning of further downside in offshore shares. Industrial and materials stocks are the most direct beneficiaries, and the data may slightly ease concerns about a sharp earnings slowdown. Commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian…
An in-line print is unlikely to move the yen much on its own, but it removes one possible dovish surprise before Friday’s decision and keeps the backdrop supportive of December hike pricing. Steady services inflation strengthens the case for the Outlook Report to effectively declare underlying inflation has reached 2%, which would support the yen and short-end JGB yields. The bigger moves are…
This is a warning shot rather than an escalation, so the immediate market impact is likely confined to aerospace names, with Airbus and Boeing shares the most exposed to any shift in trade rhetoric. The bigger risk is that aircraft financing becomes a fresh front in US-EU trade tensions at a time when the administration is already fighting on several fronts, including Canada. Any move toward…
The Australian dollar and front-end yields are set up for a binary reaction. With implied hike odds already above half, a trimmed mean at or above 1.0% would push November pricing closer to fully priced and support the currency. A 0.9% or lower print could see that pricing unwind quickly. Oil is central to the headline story: the fuel spike reflects the global energy shock tied to the Iran…
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