Headlines: US futures tumble as Alphabet earnings revive AI spending fears, Amazon is next in the firing line ECB president Lagarde set to step down from her position next February Crude oil remains capped by renewed US-Iran deal hopes, but upside risks persist Trump administration in ongoing talks for a temporary peace deal with Iran - Semafor Gold whipsaws on FOMC decision as near-term outlook…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the only highlight is the ECB rate decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, while maintaining its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. Inflation accelerated to 3.8% in September, driven by energy prices, while core inflation showed more limited increases. Rising energy costs and the risk of second-round…
Fed chair Warsh talked and markets listened. But by the end of it all, everyone pretty much went home with the same hand that they were dealt with in looking to the next meeting in December. So much for a productive Fed meeting, eh? While yesterday's decision and press conference didn't exactly shake things up, today's US PCE inflation report might have a better shot at doing so. Traders are…
RBA set for fifth 2026 hike to 4.85% as banks flag risk of another move in February More on Samsung: shares slide up to 6.6% as shareholder-return plan is delayed to January US government builds $30bn stock portfolio across 43 deals in chips, minerals and quantum Alphabet slides over 9% after hours as search miss and $9bn cash burn overshadow Cloud Samsung Q3 operating profit jumps ninefold to…
Vance writes to Iran hard-liner Rezaei to revive talks as Trump weighs new strikes Alphabet Q3: Google Cloud revenue jumps 103% but search and ad sales miss forecasts Microsoft Q1 beats as Azure grows 48% and capex lands $6bn below forecast The before and after. A look at the changes in forex, rates, stocks through the FOMC decision and press conference. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh: More information…
Lower tier data only on the agenda for the session ahead. There are much-awiated earnings releases after the US RTH close, MSFT and Alphabet. (GOOGL) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Post from Iran's foreign minister on twitter: While our Brave Armed Forces are fully prepared to defend the Homeland, Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed. We remain in close and ongoing contact with intermediaries to review ideas that can ensure implementation of our 7-Day Plan in even less than a week. This is the first real confirmation of the seven-day plan, which could start…
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) lowered its near-term growth forecasts but the government still expects to meet its fiscal rules, with £15 billion of headroom at the end of the forecast period. The headline growth revisions: 2026 GDP: 1.2% vs 1.1% in March 2027 GDP: 1.0% vs 1.6% in March 2028 GDP: 1.6% vs 1.6% in March 2029 GDP: 1.8% vs 1.5% in March 2030 GDP: 1.7% vs 1.5% in March…
Wholesale inventories: +0.6% MoM. Prior +0.5%, unrevised. Retail inventories: +0.3% MoM. Prior revised to +0.3% from +0.2%. Wholesale inventories: $1,011.5 billion, up 7.4% YoY. Retail inventories: $885.3 billion, up 4.8% YoY. US wholesale inventories rose 0.6% in September, following a 0.5% increase in August, according to the Census Bureau’s advance estimates. Retail inventories increased 0.3%,…
Prior was -132.6 These are the two worst back-to-back months since just before Liberation Day, when goods were flooding into the US to try to front-run Trump's tariffs. Excluding Jan-Mar 2025, it's the worst two-month period ever. Needless to say, tariffs aren't working. For background, the advance goods trade balance is part of the Census Bureau’s Advance Economic Indicators report, released at…
Headlines: Crude oil remains under pressure amid US-Iran deal hopes; setbacks could push prices to new highs Qatari mediators presented Iran with new draft deal; Iran's response expected by the end of the week Gold rebounds on renewed hopes for US-Iran deal as focus shifts to FOMC decision Wall Street faces a double test as Fed decision and Microsoft, Alphabet earnings loom Heads up: UK autumn…
UK chancellor Healey has a rather unenviable task at hand today. He is expected to deliver a budget that keeps households happy, businesses afloat, and bond investors calm. All while trying to convince everyone that the government isn't running short of money. Well, good luck with that. It is definitely quite the juggling act for his first autumn budget. And with borrowing costs still elevated…
According to an official briefed on the US-Iran negotiations, Qatari mediators presented Tehran with a new draft proposal on Sunday. Iran is considering the proposal, with a response expected by the end of the week. The draft reportedly establishes a seven-day timeline for addressing both sides’ concerns, requiring daily confidence-building steps, potentially beginning early next week. The report…
For quite some time now, Germany's export struggles are hardly anything new. A lot of that comes down to push to diversify away from China in recent times but Beijing's own ambitions to become more self-sufficient haven't exactly helped matters either. That has slowly exerted a toll on Europe's largest economy, especially when you consider how much Germany's industrial sector has relied on…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight will be the UK Budget announcement at 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET. The UK Chancellor is expected to announce targeted tax increases and cost-of-living support, with markets focused on the OBR’s updated forecasts and the government’s fiscal headroom, estimated at around £15–16bn. A credible Budget with adequate fiscal headroomcould support GBP…
Germany November GfK consumer sentiment -30.8 vs -30.9 expected Prior -30.6 The breakdownThe latest GfK survey shows that German consumer sentiment is set to slip marginally heading into November, amid growing inflation fears and more subdued income prospects. Looking at the details, consumers' economic expectations improved for a sixth straight month in rising to 2.1 from -3.4 previously. This…
Germany November GfK consumer sentiment -30.8 vs -30.9 expected Prior -30.6 The breakdownDetails to follow... What does the data measure?The GfK consumer climate index measures German households' confidence in their financial prospects and willingness to spend. It draws on consumer surveys covering income expectations, purchasing intentions and saving behaviour. Why does it matter to…
It has been quite an eventful start to the day so far as the central bank bonanza rolls into town. That is putting inflation back in the spotlight with there already being plenty to digest before European traders get to their desks and before we even get to the main events later today. To start with, we saw Australia's latest CPI report came in hotter than expected with trimmed mean inflation…
RBNZ’s Breman: more hikes likely at coming meetings, possibly into restrictive territory US warns Gulf allies of possible short, intense Iran campaign after midterms: WSJ Oil edges higher after Houthis claim missile strike on Saudi Arabia’s biggest refinery RBA’s Bullock: Inflation is far too high PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7165 (vs. estimate at 6.6734) AUD/NZD in focus as hawkish…
Oil is the clearest driver of the headline beat, and Bullock tied higher energy prices directly to a worse inflation outlook only minutes before the release, so any further rise in crude adds to the case for tightening. The bigger signal for markets is the core reading. A trimmed mean that rose to 3.7%, when the RBA had expected it to stabilise, supports pricing for a hike on November 2 and 3,…
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