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Prior +0.2% GDP Y/Y +0.8% vs +0.9% y/y expected Prior +1.0% Italy's economy unexpectedly stalled in the third quarter of 2026, with GDP remaining unchanged q/q, following 0.2% growth in the previous quarter. On an annual basis, GDP increased by 0.8%, pointing to a relatively modest pace of economic expansion. On the supply side, services and agriculture provided positive contributions to growth,…
Prior +0.3% GDP Y/Y +xx% vs 1.1% expected Prior +1.0% This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
Spain Q3 preliminary GDP +0.6% vs +0.6% q/q expected Prior +0.7% Spain Q3 preliminary GDP +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y expected Prior +2.6% It is the preliminary report, so there aren't much details to work with here besides the headline figures above. The quarterly figure does show a bit of a slowdown in Spanish economic growth in the third quarter, albeit marginally. And among the bigger names in the…
Spain October preliminary CPI +4.9% vs +4.9% y/y expected Prior +4.9% Spain October preliminary HICP +4.9% vs +4.9% y/y expected Prior +5.0% Spanish inflation continues to hover around 5% in October, as the preliminary estimates continue to paint a rather uncomfortable picture for the most part. Headline annual inflation remains steady at 4.9% while the harmonised reading eased marginally to 4.9%…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we get lots of Eurozone data but the main highlights will be the inflation reports for France, Spain and Germany. We have also the Eurozone GDP report but the focus will likely be on inflation, as the ECB signalled yesterday that it's prepared to raise rates in December if the inflation outlook does not improve. Therefore, inflation data (especially core…
France October preliminary CPI +3.4% vs +3.2% y/y expected Prior +3.1% France October preliminary HICP +3.8% vs +3.6% y/y expected Prior +3.4% French inflation is seen accelerating again in October, as the preliminary estimates show headline annual inflation climbing to its highest since December 2023. Yowza. The main culprit is once again energy prices, as that continues to fuel much of the…
Germany September import prices +2.1% vs +1.8% m/m expected Prior +1.0% Germany September import prices +10.4% vs +10.3% y/y expected Prior +8.3% Just when Germany thought it had enough economic headaches to deal with, here's another one to add to the pile. This time, the inflation monster is making quite the comeback through the back door. German import prices for September are seen rosing at…
France Q3 preliminary GDP -0.1% vs +0.1% q/q expected Prior 0.0% France Q3 preliminary GDP % vs +0.3% y/y expected Prior +0.5% Ouch. That's a notable miss as French GDP shrinks in Q3 this year. That follows from the stagnation in Q2 and a 0.2% contraction in Q1, not exactly the sort of economic performance one would hope for from Europe's second-largest economy. Looking at the breakdown,…
It looks like Halloween is coming a day early for markets with investors getting quite the fright already as we look to wrap up the trading week. Both stocks and Treasury yields are falling together, with gold also struggling to catch a bid. That's a rather spooky combination to deal with. So, what exactly is driving markets into this scary situation? Well, the latest earnings from Amazon…
BoJ declares underlying inflation at 2% target, lifts FY2027 price forecast as rates held BoJ keeps policy rate unchanged at 1.25%, as expected (Some good news!) Treasuries rally as AI selloff drives flight to safety, 10-year yield at one-month low Amazon and Intel results deepen worries over AI boom costs as tech, chip stocks slide PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7138 (vs.…
Lower Treasury yields ease financing costs across the curve, offering some relief to rate-sensitive sectors and to the AI firms whose borrowing has worried investors. That makes the bond rally partly self-correcting for the very stress that triggered it. A softer dollar supports Asian currencies and commodities priced in dollars. Oil remains the main threat to the rally: with Brent heading for a…
The data give the BoJ evidence on both sides, so the reaction in the yen and Japanese government bonds is likely to be modest ahead of the policy decision and Outlook Report later in the day. Stronger output and upbeat production plans support Japanese industrials and exporters. Softer retail sales could weigh on consumer-facing stocks if the weakness persists. The production upgrade suggests…
Tokyo CPI, October (y/y) Headline: 2.8% vs. 2.7% expected (prior 2.7%) Core (ex fresh food): 2.6% vs. 2.6% expected (prior 2.7%) Ex fresh food and energy: 2.4% vs. 2.7% expected (prior 2.7%) Labour market, September Unemployment rate: 2.4% vs. 2.5% expected (prior 2.5%) Jobs-to-applicants ratio: 1.19 vs. 1.18 expected (prior 1.18) Just the data this post, I'll have more to come on this…
Iran's Ghalibaf: Progress can only be achieved once the seven conditions have been agreed upon Trump: Iran war will be over very soon. Senator warns of 'insane' US plans ECB sources report: Policymakers see a December rate hike followed by a pause Lagarde: Growth should be underpinned in the near term ECB rate decision: No change in rates US initial jobless claims 194K vs 199K expected US…
Trump has said this at least 100 times since the war started in late February. He is an improviser, not a planner. Since it all went sideways, he has been looking for an elegant exit but can't find one. The blockade may be giving him some leverage but the pain of higher oil prices is making it an extremely unpopular war. Meanwhile, the UKMTO reports that a tanker has been struck by an unknown…
Iran this week has repeated its 'seven conditions' several times and most of it was part of the agreement with the US from June 17. Here is a recap: 1. End military operations on all fronts. A permanent halt to attacks against Iran and allied groups, including in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and the Palestinian territories. 2. Release frozen Iranian assets. Unfreeze Iranian money held overseas, with…
High yield: 4.894% WI level at the time of the auction: 4.894% Tail: 0.0 basis points vs the average of 0.2 basis points Bid to cover: 2.46X vs the average of 2.49X Directs: 32.82% vs the average of 24.2% Indirects: 57.77% vs the average of 63.7% Dealers: 9.41% vs the average of 12.1% Auction grade: B− A slightly above-average auction overall. The high yield matched the WI level, avoiding the…
Prior MoM +0.2% Core PCE +0.3% y/y vs +3.1% expected Prior was 3.0% y/y Headline PCE +3.6% y/y vs +3.6% expected (prior 3.4%) Deflator MoM +0.5% vs +0.5% expected (prior +0.3%) Consumer spending and income for September: Personal income +0.2% vs +0.3% expected. Prior month +0.2% Personal spending +0.5% vs +0.6% expected. Prior month +0.9% Real personal spending 0.0% vs +0.5% prior The US dollar…
Prior quarter 2,2% The details GDP: 3.4% vs 3.2% expected. Prior revised to 2.2% from 1.5%. Real final sales: 1.7% vs 2.0% expected. Prior 2.8% Consumer spending: 3.8%. Prior 3.8%. GDP deflator: 2.2% vs 3.5% expected. Prior 6.1% Core PCE prices: 2.5% vs 2.4% expected. Prior 3.3% PCE prices: 2.1% vs 2.6% expected. Prior 5.0% What drove the GDP increase? The 3.4% increase in Q3 GDP was supported by…
Prior 194K (revised to 195K) Continuing claims 1701K vs 1720K expected Prior 1728K (revised to 1722K) US initial jobless claims came in at 194K versus 199K expected, while continuing claims fell to 1.701 million against expectations of 1.720 million. The previous readings were revised to 195K and 1.722 million, respectively. US Jobless Claims measure the number of people filing for unemployment…
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