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Deutsche Bank stands alone with RBA hold call as 31 of 32 economists tip a hike Goldman lifts December Brent forecast to $105 on Middle East and Russia supply risks Tucker Carlson claims Trump weighing nuclear strike on Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain Gold’s slide to one-year low: margin calls amplified a fall driven by Fed hike bets Election scenarios: Morgan Stanley’s Wilson says buy midterm dip, sees…
The beat offers some relief after Saturday’s weak official survey and may give modest support to China-sensitive assets such as the yuan, the Australian dollar and industrial metals at the start of the week. The price detail is less encouraging. Falling output and export charges driven by fierce competition point to continued disinflationary pressure from Chinese factories, which global markets…
The survey keeps Japan’s factory sector in solid expansion while showing price pressure starting to build again, which supports the case for continued policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan. Stronger input inflation linked partly to oil, together with hiring close to its fastest pace in years and rising backlogs, points to a tight goods sector rather than a weakening one. For the yen, the data…
The benefit itself is modest in scale, but it sits alongside a proposed two-year cut to the consumption tax on food, which keeps Japan’s fiscal trajectory in focus for bond investors. Any sign that the combined package grows beyond the reference figures could add to upward pressure on long-dated Japanese government bond yields and weigh on the yen, given persistent market sensitivity to Tokyo’s…
The change doesn’t alter exchange hours, but it does shift when global liquidity overlaps. Asia-Pacific desks now see US cash trading start and finish an hour later on their clocks, which narrows the gap between the Wall Street close and the Asian open and changes when US-driven moves first reach Asian markets. For Europe, the London and New York overlap returns to its normal winter shape after a…
The delay adds to a run of setbacks that point to rising execution risk across Australia’s (and global) data centre sector, where permitting, energy supply and community opposition are all lengthening timelines. Listed developers and landlords such as NextDC and Goodman have already pulled back or delayed projects this year, and a regulatory hold on a project in one of the country’s most sparsely…
The survey has an uncomfortable mix for policymakers: demand and output are contracting, but input costs and selling prices are rising faster. Firms cited higher interest rates among the reasons for weaker orders, while the pricing data suggest inflation pressure in the goods sector is building rather than fading, which complicates any case for policy relief. The Middle East war is feeding…
Taken at face value, a thaw in US-Canada trade relations would support the Canadian dollar and trade-exposed Canadian equities, which have carried the cost of months of tit-for-tat tariffs. Markets are likely to discount the headline until there is text to read, though, because neither side has said what tariffs would change or when. The timing, two days before midterms in which tariffs on Canada…
China’s private-sector manufacturing PMI is due at 01:45 GMT on Monday (20:45 US Eastern on Sunday), with economists expecting factory activity to keep growing in October, though at a slower pace than in September. The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, is forecast to ease to 51.6 from 52.1, according to a Reuters poll. That would still leave the index comfortably…
Because the data came out on a Saturday, Monday’s Asian session is the first chance for markets to price the miss. Softer Chinese factory demand is usually a headwind for industrial metals such as copper and iron ore, and for China-sensitive currencies including the yuan and the Australian dollar. Chinese equities may be partly cushioned by expectations of more policy support. For oil, a weaker…
Nasdaq suffers worst month since March 2025 as technology stocks tumble Bitcoin tests key support as Binance security fears weigh Week ahead: Elections, rate decisions and jobs take center stage Earnings next week: Can Apple, Palantir and AMD restore confidence? Fed’s Logan: At least two more quarter-point rate hikes needed Carney: Canada, EU working toward deepest possible partnership, short of…
Next week’s calendar gives traders plenty to work with. US congressional elections bring political uncertainty, the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England are expected to raise rates, and Friday delivers employment reports from both the US and Canada. The central question is whether growth, inflation and employment support a more restrictive policy outlook. For traders, the releases will…
Comments from Canada PM Carney cross the wires: Canada, EU working towards deepest possible partnership, short of accession. We will determine substance, scale and scope of this form of membership over coming months. Accepted President Costa’s invitation to attend European Council meetings in June to conclude negotiations Analysis: Carney is signaling an ambition to deepen Canada’s relationship…
Fitch’s assessment of the UK Budget points to a familiar problem: setting out a path to stronger public finances is one thing. Delivering it is another. The ratings agency sees broad continuity in government policy, but warns that the plans still leave a sizeable delivery challenge. It continues to anticipate significant slippage against spending plans and says fiscal consolidation becomes much…
Prior quarter was +0.9% Employment benefits +0.9% vs +1.0% prior quarter Employment wages +0.7% vs +0.9% prior quarter The US Employment Cost Index (ECI) increased by 0.8% q/q in the third quarter, with both wages and salaries and benefit costs contributing to the increase. Wages and salaries rose 0.7%, while benefit costs increased 0.9% compared with the previous quarter. On an annual basis,…
Prior Month 0.0% Details of the Canada GDP for the month of August: August real GDP: 0.0% MoM. Prior 0.0%. September advance estimate: -0.1% MoM. Q3 preliminary growth indication: +0.3% QoQ, not annualized. Breadth: 9 of 20 industrial sectors expanded in August. Services-producing industries: -0.1%. Goods-producing industries: +0.1%. Key August sector details: Retail trade: +1.2%, led by motor…
Headlines: What is spooking markets as stocks, Treasury yields and gold all fall today? Gold gets hit again by forced liquidations as equity losses mount; fundamental outlook increasingly positive BOJ governor Ueda says will stick to rate hike path in response to latest macro developments BOJ governor Ueda tries to play down inflation victory declaration, says it will be up to the government to…
Prior +4.2% HICP +5.6% vs +4.6% y/y expected Prior +4.2% Inflation accelerated sharply in October 2026, but the increase was primarily driven by energy prices, with both regulated and non-regulated energy products recording significant increases. Regulated energy inflation surged from 25.8% to 59.5% y/y, while non-regulated energy prices accelerated from 22.5% to 29.4%. Higher energy costs remain…
Eurozone Q3 preliminary GDP +0.4% vs +0.2% q/q expected Prior +0.6% Eurozone Q3 preliminary GDP +1.3% vs +1.1% y/y expected Prior +1.2% Well, well, well. Would you look at that. The euro area economy has managed to pull a rabbit out of the hat, delivering a better-than-expected Q3 GDP reading at first glance. But before we start popping the champagne, there's a catch or two worth considering when…
The state readings released around the same time: Bavaria September CPI +2.8% vs +3.2% y/y prior Saxony September CPI +2.9% vs +3.3% y/y prior North Rhine Westphalia September CPI +2.7% vs +3.3% y/y prior Baden Wuerttemberg September CPI +2.6% vs +2.9% y/y prior After the acceleration in September, headline inflation is seen cooling back a little in German states. While base effects are part of…
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