Headlines: The S&P 500 stays on the back foot amid geopolitical uncertainty as US midterm elections loom. What's next? Solana remains under pressure as markets weigh US-Iran talks, Fed risks and US midterm elections Crude oil trims losses as US strikes Iran's Qeshm Island while CIA Director calls for continued economic pressure Three warning signs the tech selloff isn't over as Wall Street…
Switzerland October CPI +1.5% vs +1.3% y/y expected Prior +1.0% Switzerland October core CPI +0.5% y/y Prior +0.5% Swiss headline annual inflation picks up at the start of the third quarter, rising to 1.5% from 1.0% previously. Much like elsewhere around the region, higher energy prices are the main culprit in continuing to feed through to consumer prices. As such, the inflation numbers may look…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the only highlight is the Swiss CPI report. Headline CPI Y/Y is expected at 1.2% vs 1.0% prior, while the Core Y/Y measure is seen unchanged at 0.5%. The data won't change anything for the SNB, though, as the central bank maintains a neutral stance with interest rates at 0.00% and limited second-round effects from higher energy prices. The risk sentiment…
And round and round we go. We started the week with renewed optimism that the US and Iran might finally be inching towards a diplomatic breakthrough. That led to oil prices tumbling on Monday as hopes of a potential deal gathered momentum. But fast forward to today, and we're pretty much back where we started. Anyone got a case of déjà vu? These have been the same sort of headlines that we have…
Apple and Palantir beat earnings. Why did both stocks fall? More: RBA lifts cash rate to 4.85% in split 6-3 vote, sees inflation above 3% until late 2027 Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) 25bp rate hike, as widely expected After the Binance hack, the simple security rule regulators keep coming back to, hot vs. cold wallets Nasdaq’s worst month since March 2025 puts returns on AI spending in focus,…
Economic and event calendar in Asia 03 November 2026 - RBA rate hike expected Apple and Palantir earnings preview: The numbers buyers and sellers will be watching Iran and US reportedly on verge of preliminary agreement Gold Technicals: Gold is up sharply erasing some of last week's declines. Bounces off key MA target. US construction spending for the month of September -1.9% versus 0.3% estimate…
Tehran and Washington are reportedly nearing a preliminary agreement, according to ILNA Telegram citing Al-Sharara news agency: Al-Sharara news agency reported, citing a diplomatic source aware of the intensive diplomatic moves between Tehran and Washington to reach a preliminary agreement aimed at reducing tensions, and announced that the coming hours will be decisive in determining the fate of…
Prior month +0.9% revised to +2.0%. Details from the Census Department Total construction spending: −1.9% MoM, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,186.1 billion, versus August’s revised $2,227.4 billion. Prior month revised higher to 2.0% from +0.9%. Year-over-year spending: −2.7%. January–September spending: −2.9% versus the same period in 2025. September components compared with August,…
Prior month 54.5 Details of the report. Manufacturing PMI: 55.5 vs 54.5 expected. Prior 54.5. Prices paid: 75.2 vs 77.5 expected. Prior 77.9. Employment: 52.4 vs 52.0 expected. Prior 52.7. US manufacturing growth accelerated in October, with the Institute for Supply Management’s headline index rising to 55.5 from 54.5, beating expectations for an unchanged reading. The sector expanded (above…
Preliminary 56.0 Prior month 55.9 Details for October 2026 from the S&P Global: Manufacturing PMI: 54.9. Prior 55.9, a 52-month high. Employment: Strongest growth since April 2021. Selling prices: Fastest increase since September 2022. Supplier delivery times: Greatest lengthening since August 2022. New orders: Growth slowed to its weakest since March. Export orders: Rose marginally for the first…
Prior month 51.5 Details: Manufacturing PMI: 49.6. Prior 51.5. First reading below 50 in 2026 and lowest since December 2025. Production: First decline since March. New orders: Steepest contraction in over a year. Export orders: Fifth consecutive monthly decline, with the sharpest fall since January. Supplier delivery times: Greatest deterioration since August 2022. Input costs: Fastest increase…
Tuesday’s midterm elections will determine whether Republicans retain control of Congress or Democrats gain the ability to slow President Donald Trump’s agenda during the final two years of his term (and cause other headaches for President Trump). The numbers are straightforward: Democrats need a net gain of three House seats to reach the 218-seat majority threshold. In the Senate, Republicans…
Iranian President Pezeshkian commented on dialogue and the war, according to ISNA: War will not be in anyone’s interest, and the enemies will not be able to force us to surrender through it. The Supreme Leader has granted the government some authority on dialogue. The supplied market update reports a risk-on reaction: oil and the dollar are moving lower, with US equity futures, Treasuries and…
Iran's President Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader has granted the government certain authorities regarding negotiations, according to the state-run ISNA news agency. The markets are taking this as a signal for greater flexibility and potentially strengthen the government's ability to reach a deal with the US. As a reminder, strategic decisions remain under the authority of the Supreme Leader,…
Headlines: US midterms 2026: Is Trump about to lose his grip on Congress? US midterms 2026: Where are Republicans most vulnerable in the battle for Congress? Crude oil opens the week lower and extends the losses as US-Iran deal hopes return. What's next? European stock market open: Stocks kick start November trading more cautiously Chart of the day: Gold is in trouble and things could get a whole…
Ahead of election day tomorrow, Republicans are certainly feeling the pressure in judging by how the latest polls are shaping up. Earlier in the day, we've already looked at what's at stake for US president Trump and financial markets. So now, let's take a look at where exactly could Republicans lose their grip on Congress going into the midterms. In essence, these will be the battlegrounds that…
Eurozone October final manufacturing PMI 52.7 vs 52.4 prelim Prior 52.9 Euro area industry activity softened slightly in October, with the headline PMI estimate touching a two-month low. The output index slumped further to 52.8 from 53.6 in September, dropping to a four-month low. Overall, it still marks a modest expansion in manufacturing conditions despite slower new order growth and increased…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we get the final PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. The final data is rarely a market mover because markets react more to fresh information like preliminary data. The week started with a positive risk sentiment given the lack of US attacks on Iran over the weekend and the latest diplomatic developments. Iran has proposed a two-day framework…
Germany September retail sales -2.0% vs +0.4% m/m expected Prior +1.3%; revised to +1.2% Germany September retail sales -2.3% y/y Prior -0.4%; revised to -0.3% Ouch. Death, taxes, and Germany economic data disappointing on expectations. It feels almost inevitable more often than not. That's a big miss on German retail sales with consumption activity softening across the board. Looking at the…
I reckon that US president Trump might be in for a rude awakening after tomorrow. Or perhaps he is already aware of his current predicament, although I wouldn't put it past him to refuse to accept that reality. Either way, he's going to have to deal with the possibility that his grip on Congress could be slipping away. As the US heads to the polls tomorrow, both the control of the House and…
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