Not thousands of headlines. The few lines that move price. For traders: straight from the source, clear and simple.
Eurozone October preliminary CPI +4.0% vs +4.0% y/y expected Prior +3.8% Eurozone October preliminary core CPI +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y expected Prior +2.5% Details to follow.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
Prior 51.7 Composite PMI 50.8 vs 50.8 expected Prior 51.0 Key findings: Growth in activity back in line with trend, supported by stronger new business inflows Business sentiment strongest since November last year Input cost inflation surges to almost four-year high Comment: Eleanor Dennison, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: "The Italian service sector maintained its steady path of…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we get the final services PMI for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. The data won't change anything for the respective central banks, so the market reaction will likely be muted. The main highlight is going to be the Eurozone CPI report. Headline CPI Y/Y is expected at 4.0% vs 3.8% prior, while the Core CPI Y/Y is seen unchanged at 2.5%. The ECB has…
Well, well, well. Who would've thought that starting a war might not be the greatest way to win over voters? That especially when ordinary Americans are the ones feeling the pinch and getting hit where it hurts most, that being their wallets. And now, it looks like Trump is the one paying the political price for his own decisions. The US midterm election results are delivering a rather profound…
China’s yuan slides to two-week low as PBOC moves to slow its rally Iran’s IRGC says four tankers destroyed by mines south of Hormuz, two vessels detained Trump allies are pointing to the Iran war as the reason for the election disaster US futures slide as Democrats lead midterm count, AI data centre fears hit tech Nikkei drops 3% as Democratic midterm gains hit AI and chip stocks Update: Iran…
The data adds to the picture of a Chinese economy still growing but struggling with weak pricing power, which helps explain why authorities are leaning on targeted support such as this week’s expanded buyback lending. Falling selling prices alongside rising costs point to margin pressure for listed service companies, which may limit any equity bounce from the support measures. Firms specifically…
It's no longer early as US votes roll in. There is a highly statistically significant number of districts reporting now and some of them reporting completely. The numbers are showing a 10-35 point swing towards Democrats. If even the bottom of that holds, it's a huge swing towards Democrats. For illustration, betting odds now have Democrats winning the Texas Governorship and Senate seat, with…
The steady drift lower in the kiwi since the release suggests traders are pricing out some of the chance of a December hike rather than reacting to a one-off headline. The fall in two-year swaps supports that reading. With the RBA still leaning hawkish, the widening policy gap leaves NZD/AUD vulnerable to further weakness. The election is the next risk: a Labour-led win would bring the prospect…
I highlighted KY-06 as an early district to watch as a barometer of today's vote and now some real results are crossing and betting markets are moving. In Anderson County, the numbers show the Republican Alvarado leading by 19 percentage points. That's good, right? No, it's not because in the prior three House elections, the Republican won that county +48, +54 and +54. So that's around a…
Carney’s remarks offer modest support for the Canadian dollar, as any easing of the 50% US tariff would lift a weight on Canadian exporters and the growth outlook. The lack of a timeline limits how much a trade-deal premium can build, so USD/CAD is likely to stay more sensitive to the US midterm results and oil prices in the near term. Canada is the largest foreign supplier of crude to the US, so…
The miss on every major measure is likely to weigh on the New Zealand dollar and trim pricing for a December rate hike. The kiwi was already near a cycle low against the Australian dollar after last week’s RBNZ hold, and the gap with a more hawkish RBA now looks set to widen. The weak jobs figures argue against tightening, but the RBNZ’s hawks have focused on core inflation and fuel costs. A…
JOLTs Job openings 7.523M vs 7.100M estimate US September factory orders +1.8% vs +1.2% expected Trump on Israel: The aid gets cut off at year-end Never tell me the odds: Prediction markets see Democrats taking control of House and Senate BOC's Macklem: There could be a need to raise the policy rate further ECB’s Nagel says a December rate hike is very likely to be necessary Two reasons why the…
Oil has been falling this week but there's a fair argument that Trump could be attempting to send false signals in order to lower oil prices ahead of the vote. Behind the scenes, the US military has been angling to be in a position to attack immediately after the midterms. The New York Times cites US officials who say the US military could resume major combat operations against Iran as early as…
Midterm election day continues in the United States without too much drama. All the talk of false flags and martial law on election day hasn't taken place and the polling disruptions have been minimal and certainly not widespread. Here’s the schedule for when the polls close across the US. States that span two time zones close in stages, so the early calls in Indiana and Kentucky will only…
The latest prediction-market prices show another modest shift toward Republicans in Senate control, while House control is largely unchanged. The latter part makes me think the movement is variance in a relatively thin market rather than a signal. In any case, the numbers are worth watching. There is all kinds of analysis out there about early voting turnout and patterns but it's almost…
Prior factory orders +0.1% Factory orders excluding transportation +0.5% vs +0.3% prior Durable goods orders revisions +1.9% vs +1.8% prelim Durable goods excluding transportation revisions +0.5% vs +0.5% prelim Durable goods excluding defense +2.3% vs +2.2% prelim Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft +0.6% vs +0.5% prelim This is a decent report and shows some momentum in factories…
Prior month 7.079M revised to 7.19M Details of the JOLTs Job openings: Job openings: 7.523 million vs 7.190 million, up 333,000. August revised up by 111,000 to 7.2 million. Job openings rate: 4.5%. Hires: 5.402 million vs 5.271 million, up 131,000. Total separations: 5.319 million vs 5.175 million, up 144,000. Quits: 3.4 million vs 3.0 million in August, revised down by 22,000. Layoffs and…
There are more headlines crossing suggesting positive developments in Iran-US talks, with Al-Arabiya now carrying similar headlines to the earlier ones that weighed on oil. In contrast, here is Iran security chief Mohsen Rezaei just now: America's response to Iran's rights and demands was not convincing, and they must fully and explicitly address Iran's seven conditions and act upon them; only in…
Trump spoke on Fox News and Israel came up. The comments appear to be putting some downward pressure on oil, with the sense that there are some lines being drawn between the US and Israel. The market is extending that to the idea that the US will make a deal with Iran. I'm skeptical that's what Trump is really implying here but the price action in oil this week is dramatic. Aid gets cut off at…
Prediction markets are pointing to a Democratic sweep of Congress in today's US midterm elections, with the odds of Democrats taking control of the Senate rising sharply in recent weeks. As of around 8 am ET on Tuesday, November 3, the latest prices from Kalshi and Polymarket show: House control: Democrats 94–95%, Republicans 6–7% Senate control: Democrats 78%, Republicans 23–24% The Senate race…
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