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US Treasury yields are trading at highs across the curve. The 10-year yield is above 5.09%, and the 30-year is near 5.39%. The question for traders is whether yields can stay at these levels as the market weighs strong growth against the risk of more inflation. At the time of the yield snapshot: 2-year: 4.8952%. The last comparable daily reading was 4.92% on May 30, 2024. 5-year: 4.9828%. The…
A senior Iranian official told Reuters about Tuesday’s indirect talks with the United States: Iran’s key priorities are permanently ending hostilities and lifting the U.S. naval blockade. Still many differences remain between Iran, US positions, but diplomacy continues Meanwhile Secretary of State Rubio adds that talks on Iran on Tuesday were largely an exchange of ideas and messages. Analysis:…
It is Iran's turn at the UN with Iran Pres. Pezeshkian taking the stage today. Note that US officials walked out of the UNGA hall ahead of his speech. In summary, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran needs nuclear energy, not a nuclear bomb, and argued that the nuclear issue cannot be settled on the battlefield. He said Iran has shown a commitment to negotiations, but will not surrender…
Prior was 56.8 Manufacturing 57.0 vs 53.6 exp Prior manufacturing 53.2 Composite 58.4 vs 56.0 prior This is a nice jump and underscores the Fed's rate hike and hawkish stance. These are five-year highs across the board. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
Headlines: Oil slips below $100 as US-Iran talks put crude prices and Treasury yields at a crossroads The selloff in oil prices stalls as Trump pours cold water on expectations of an earlier end to the conflict Gold falls back to the major $4,300 support ahead of key US data as traders await new US-Iran developments USD/JPY holds above 157 despite BOJ rate hike; intervention risk refuses to…
Prior 52.5 Manufacturing PMI 52.0 vs 51.5 expected Prior 51.7 Composite PMI 51.7 vs 52.0 expected Prior 52.5 Comment: Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “September is seeing a worrying combination of disappointingly sluggish economic growth and intensifying inflationary pressures, with subdued business confidence and high costs meanwhile continuing…
Eurozone September flash services PMI 53.0 vs 51.5 expected Prior 51.6 Eurozone September flash manufacturing PMI 52.7 vs 52.6 expected Prior 52.7 Eurozone September flash composite PMI 53.1 vs 51.7 expected Prior 52.0 Following the stronger showings in both France and Germany earlier, the more robust business activity in the overall euro area here was very much expected. The latest reading…
Prior 54.3 Services PMI 52.9 vs 50.0 expected Prior 49.7 Composite PMI 53.8 vs 51.8 expected Prior 51.8 Comment: Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said "German businesses reported further signs of resilience in September, with output growth picking up speed, expectations towards the outlook holding steady and employment rising for a second month running,…
France September flash services PMI 51.4 vs 48.3 expected Prior 48.0 France September flash manufacturing PMI 50.3 vs 50.9 expected Prior 51.1 France September flash composite PMI 51.2 vs 48.7 expected Prior 48.5 That is a strong read as French business activity moved back into expansion territory (>50.0) in September, bolstered by a stronger performance in the services sector. Of note, the…
France September flash services PMI 51.4 vs 48.3 expected Prior 48.0 France September flash manufacturing PMI 50.3 vs 50.9 expected Prior 51.1 France September flash composite PMI 51.2 vs 48.7 expected Prior 48.5 That is a strong read as French business activity moved back into expansion territory (>50.0) in September, bolstered by a stronger performance in the services sector. Of note, the…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we get the Flash PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. The market focus might now shift to growth, given the aggressive tightening already priced in. Inflation data remains at the top of the list, but if the economic activity data starts surprising to the downside, then we might see a dovish repricing for the 2027 curve which could weigh on…
We will be getting the preliminary PMI data for September for France, Germany, and the overall Eurozone later today. In terms of key estimates, markets are looking for: Manufacturing PMI: France 50.9 (prior 51.1), Germany 54.0 (prior 54.3), Eurozone 52.6 (prior 52.7) Services PMI: France 48.3 (prior 48.0), Germany 50.0 (prior 49.7), Eurozone 51.5 (prior 51.6) Composite PMI: France 48.7 (prior…
A China inflation forecast below 1% for both this year and next underlines how little price pressure the world's second-largest economy is generating, keeping deflation risk in view and leaving room for further policy support from Beijing. That contrasts with much of the rest of the region, where energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict keep inflation elevated and limit central banks' scope…
Australia jobs preview: CBA sees 15,000 gain, unemployment steady at 4.5% Morgan Stanley prefers Nokia as it turns bearish on Ericsson Australia jobs preview: employment seen rebounding in August, jobless rate at 4.5% Gold edges up or goes nowhere? Headlines clash as rates and oil pull in opposite ways PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7468 (vs. estimate at 6.6971) How private credit fund…
With CBA below consensus and Westpac above it, the major banks bracket the market's 20,000 forecast, so a result anywhere in that band is unlikely to move rate expectations much ahead of next week's widely expected RBA hike. The bigger swing factor is the unemployment rate: CBA's view that it needs to drift higher to curb inflation means a surprise dip would strengthen the case for further…
The data land days before the Reserve Bank of Australia's 29 September meeting, where a rate increase is widely expected, so a result near or above forecasts would do little to shift near-term pricing but could firm expectations for further tightening in November. A second straight fall in employment, or a jump in unemployment, would challenge the case for a follow-up hike and could weigh on the…
The survey hands the RBA a mixed signal days before its 29 September decision: softer demand and job cuts argue for caution, while faster growth in output prices keeps the inflation case for a hike alive. With markets already heavily priced for a move, the data may do more to shape expectations for November than for next week. Energy remains the key transmission channel, with Middle East-driven…
The findings reinforce the structural case against Germany's export-heavy industrial base, a headwind for autos, machinery and capital goods names that a cyclical recovery may only partly offset. For the ECB, cheaper Chinese imports are a potential source of downward pressure on goods prices, which could complicate the inflation outlook at a time when energy costs are pushing the other way.…
Australia flash PMIs preview: September data arrive days before an expected RBA hike. Australia's preliminary S&P Global purchasing managers' indexes for September are due at 23:00 GMT (7pm US Eastern) on Wednesday, which is 9am Thursday on the east coast of Australia. August's final readings showed the private sector still growing, but a little more slowly than in July. The services PMI slipped…
Recap: US and Iran meet in New York on UNGA sidelines, Hormuz conditions on the table Trump and Bessent talk about a diesel export ban. Also says spoke with Iran for 3 hours Fed's Barkin says he thinks the hiking cycle could be like the Greenspan "mid-cycle adjustment" US treasury sells $69 billion of two-year notes at a high yield of 4.787% Richmond Fed’s Barkin says inflation risks outweighed…
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