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President Donald Trump is hosting Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House during Xi’s three-day U.S. state visit. The leaders are expected to discuss trade, technology, Taiwan and the war with Iran. No outcome from today’s talks should be assumed yet. Trade starts from a better position than it did a day ago. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday that the U.S. and China had…
Prior month 0.643 million revised from 0.607 million August new home sales beat expectations, according to figures released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The July revision also changes the picture: the 6.4% August gain is measured from 643,000, rather than the 607,000 initially reported for July. August details compared with July: Homes for…
Prior month 0.6% The advanced August reading comes in at 1.3% Details from Statistics Canada: Retail sales:−0.7% to C$73.7 billion vs −0.8% expected. Prior +0.6%. Retail sales excluding autos:−0.7% vs −0.5% expected. Prior +0.5%. Core retail sales:−0.7% after +1.2% in June. This measure excludes both autos and gasoline. Sales volume:−1.1%. Canadian retail sales fell slightly less than expected in…
Prior was 196K (revised to 198K) Continuing claims 1719K vs 1745K expected Prior was 1730K (revised to 1717K) US initial jobless claims came in at 197K, below the 201K expected by economists, pointing to continued resilience in the US labor market. The previous week's reading was revised higher to 198K from 196K, nevertheless, claims remain at historically low levels, indicating that layoffs…
Headlines: Brent crude above $100 and 10-year Treasury yields above 5% give markets a double test SNB leaves policy rate unchanged at 0% in September meeting, as widely expected USD/JPY races to three-week high above 158 as buyers eye a technical break higher Gold prices slide toward last week’s lows as 10-year Treasury yields blow past 5.10% Crude oil extends gains as expectations for an earlier…
Germany September Ifo business climate index 89.9 vs 89.1 expected Prior 88.8 Germany September Ifo business expectations 90.4 vs 89.3 expected Prior 89.1; revised to 89.0 Germany September Ifo current assessment index 89.5 vs 89.0 expected Prior 88.5 Things are looking on the up in Germany as the latest business climate index surveyed by Ifo rises further in September to its highest since May…
Germany September Ifo business climate index 89.9 vs 89.1 expected Prior 88.8 Germany September Ifo business expectations 90.4 vs 89.3 expected Prior 89.1; revised to 89.0 Germany September Ifo current assessment index 89.5 vs 89.0 expected Prior 88.5 More to follow... This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
The latest business and household confidence data released today: France September consumer confidence 86 vs 85 expected Prior 86 France September business confidence 96 vs 97 expected Prior 98 French consumer sentiment is seen holding steady in September, although still keeping well below the long-term average reading of 100. The details reveal a slight rebound in households' opinion on future…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we have the SNB rate decision and the German IFO survey. The SNB is widely expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 0.00%, so the focus will be on inflation forecast, assessment of the oil shock, CHF intervention language and guidance for 2027. Inflation has surprised to the upside recently but a large part of the increase was energy-related, with…
This week has basically revolved around two questions for broader markets. The first being can oil prices keep below $100? And the second being can 10-year Treasury yields stay below the 5% mark? Today, we are starting to get an answer to both. And by the looks of it, neither is going in the direction that markets would have preferred. Brent crude is back above $102 after a push higher in…
From 500 jets to salvage mode: Boeing's China hopes shrink ahead of summit Google readies Gemini 4 launch as it seeks to regain ground in the AI model race AUD little changed: Australia jobless rate hits 4.6%, highest since 2021, participation outpaces jobs beat Australian jobs data for August 2026. Unemployment rate 4.6% (expected 4.5%, prior 4.5%) Heads up: China markets shut Friday for…
The muted reaction in AUD/USD reflects a report that offers something for both sides: headline hiring was strong, but a higher jobless rate and a fall in full-time roles temper the hawkish read. Rates markets are likely to treat the unemployment rise as a supply-side story, driven by participation, which keeps the focus on inflation and next week's RBA decision. The ASX 200's partial recovery…
With mainland markets and Stock Connect shut on the final day of the Trump-Xi summit, Hong Kong equities and the offshore yuan become the main channel for pricing any China-related headlines. Thinner cross-border flows can amplify moves in Hong Kong-listed China names, since southbound mainland buying is absent. The compressed three-day window before the National Day break raises the odds of…
Australian Employment Change 39.5K expected 20K, prior -15.8K Full Time Employment Change -6.3K prior 6.3K Part-Time 45.8K prior -32.2K Participation Rate 67.1% expected 66.9%, prior 66.9% --- Background: Australia jobs preview: NAB leans to 4.4% unemployment on 20k gain in a close call Australia jobs preview: CBA sees 15,000 gain, unemployment steady at 4.5% Australia jobs preview: employment…
Sticky price pressures and the strongest hiring since February keep the inflation side of the Bank of Japan's case intact, even as activity growth slows. The survey's explicit link between cost pressures and the weak yen may add to policymakers' sensitivity to further currency weakness. For JGBs, already under pressure from the global rise in yields, the data offers little relief, since selling…
The extension removes a near-term cliff risk for Asian assets, with the truce otherwise due to expire in November, and should underpin the yuan and China-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar. Because an extension was widely signposted, the bigger swing factor is whether the summit produces the broader deal Beijing floated or simply a rollover. Rare earth flows are the key pressure…
A dip to 4.4% would reinforce the view that Australia's labour market remains tight relative to RBA projections, likely supporting the Australian dollar and front-end yields as traders weigh the inflation trade-off the central bank has flagged. A steady 4.5% with modest job gains would largely match the RBA's own path and should draw a more muted response. Given the ABS survey changes, markets…
Previews of the Australian jobs data are here: Australia jobs preview: CBA sees 15,000 gain, unemployment steady at 4.5% Australia jobs preview: employment seen rebounding in August, jobless rate at 4.5% AUD looks ready for a bounce back if the jobs data is strong. I'll have more to come on this separately. In the meantime: AUD is the biggest mover vs the USD at -1.02%. What next technically?…
US September S&P Global flash services PMI 58.7 vs 56.0 expected US treasury sells $70 billion of 5 year notes at a high yield of 5.033% Iranian president says Iran is open to diplomacy but will defend its interests in Hormuz Iranian official says reopening the Strait of Hormuz was discussed in U.S. talks Fed's Barr: Further rate hikes are likely needed to ensure timely return to 2% inflation…
The Treasury sold $70 billion of five-year notes at a high yield of 5.033%, compared with a when-issued (WI) yield of 5.002% just before the auction. That is a 3.1-basis-point tail, well above the six-auction average of 0.6 basis points. Bid-to-cover: 2.21X versus the 2.33X average Direct bidders: 29.92% versus the 21.8% average Indirect bidders: 54.31% versus the 65.2% average Dealers: 15.77%…
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