Xi: Agreed with Trump to add new substance to US-China relationship Trump on China: We've made tremendous strides for both countries in meetings We will be speaking a lot It's not like we're breaking any new ground here but this is a nice departure from the constant China fighting that has characterized much of Trump's tenure, and his entire public persona since he entered into politics. This…
Prelim was 47.8 Prior was 51.7 Current conditions vs 50.9 prelim (51.9 prior) Expectations vs 45.8 prelim (51.5 prior) One-year inflation expectations vs 4.6% prelim Five-year inflation expectations vs 3.4% prelim This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
Speaking on CNBC, Greer said the US will release on Monday the details of negotiations between China and the US. I wouldn't expect to be overwhelmed but at least it's all on the rails. Meanwhile Trump is tweeting. It seems we're at the stage of his Presidency, where he's all about re-naming things. Very productive meeting with President Xi for both the U.S.A. and China. Tremendous things will be…
Prior was +1.1% Ex-transport +0.3% vs +0.6% expected Prior ex-transport +0.4% Ex-defense +0.1% vs +1.3% prior Non-defense capital goods orders ex-air +1.6% vs +0.5% expected Prior +0.2% The big data point this week was the S&P Global PMI that showed an accelerating US economy. The headline here is flat but the core orders matter much more of the underlying direction of the economy and that's a…
Headlines: USD/JPY falls below 158.00 as Takaichi says Trump flagged weak yen pressure Crude oil falls on reports of potential phased US-Iran deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz Trump-Xi summit extends the trade truce but leaves the biggest market questions unresolved How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events? Fed's Williams: Persistent supply shocks are making…
Spain Q2 final GDP +0.7% vs +0.7% q/q expected Prior +0.6% The breakdownThe final estimate confirms that the Spanish economy grew by 0.7% in the second quarter, accelerating slightly from 0.6% growth in Q1. Domestic demand remains the main engine of the economy, contributing 1.1% to quarterly GDP growth. By aggregate demand, household consumption increased by 1.2% and government consumption by…
Spain Q2 final GDP +0.7% vs +0.7% q/q expected Prior +0.6% The breakdownMore to follow... What does the data measure?GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced in Spain. The quarterly reading offers the clearest broad measure of how quickly the economy is expanding or contracting. Why does it matter to markets?Spain has continued to outperform much of the euro area, so the…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we have the final Spain's Q2 GDP which is expected to confirm a 0.7% quarterly growth vs 0.7% in the preliminary reading. The data won't change anything for the ECB, though, so the market reaction will likely be muted. The markets are currently focused on renewed hopes for quick de-escalation and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following yesterday's…
Germany October GfK consumer climate -30.6 vs -27.4 expected Prior -26.6; revised to -26.8 The breakdownThat is a notable miss on estimates as German consumer sentiment weakens more sharply than expected heading into October. The main culprit is rising energy prices and that is weighing on purchasing power of households especially. Besides that, the sub-index for income expectations also fell…
And so the Trump-Xi summit this week delivered what markets probably needed most. That being no fresh escalation between the two largest economies in the world. But beyond that, there wasn't much of any breakthrough either. The clearest takeaway is the extension of the existing US-China trade truce by another two months to 10 January. That keeps the existing tariffs regime in place and gives both…
The selloff in the bond market isn't showing much sign of letting up. 10-year Treasury yields have pushed up to 5.18%, extending the breakout above 5% and putting another important technical area firmly into view. The next major hurdle on the chart sits around the 5.25% to 5.30% region, roughly where yields topped out during 2006-07. So, what's next from here? Well, if the 2006-07 highs give way,…
Nikkei gains 1.2% as chip stocks and dividend buying lift Tokyo, SoftBank slips on Oracle Goldman stays bullish on AI as cloud giants' spending heads towards $1.2 trillion Katayama says Trump raised weak yen concerns with Takaichi, USD/JPY eases below 158.50 Recession signal flashes on Oxford Economics' US indicator, but spending shows no sign of cracking Tether confirms funds stuck at troubled…
A recession signal against a backdrop of strong data makes it a useful counterpoint for bond markets. It gives Treasury bulls an argument just as 10-year yields sit above 5.2% and Fed hike odds are rising. Markets are unlikely to react much for now, because Oxford itself plays down the signal and current data points the other way. The warning matters more as a sign of what could go wrong if…
AUD is the most exposed of the major currencies. It usually trades partly as a proxy for China, and with onshore markets shut it loses that anchor and has to lean more on oil, Treasury yields and the RBA. With Dalian iron ore futures closed, iron ore price discovery shifts to the Singapore contract, which is thinner. Gold also loses one of its biggest sources of Asia-time demand. With the…
A two-month extension avoids a November tariff cliff, but it gives markets no lasting relief, and the January 10 deadline now becomes the next risk event for trade-sensitive assets. The Australian dollar, as a liquid proxy for China's growth, is likely to take its lead from progress at the Shenzhen and Miami summits more than from this week's ceremony. Farm purchases lagging and rare-earth…
US stocks finish mixed as Meta’s Muse rally helps mask the losers. Iran’s Pezeshkian wants a deal with the US before the midterm elections, NBC reports Meta shares approach all-time highs as the Muse rally begins yet another leg higher US treasury sells $44 billion of 7 year notes at a high yield of 5.085% US/Iran discussed phasing in a deal to reopen Hormuz and end the US blockade Bitcoin trades…
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian spoke briefly with NBC News and other news organizations on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly: “We don’t want it to get to the midterm elections.” Analysis: The timing is the message. Pezeshkian is signaling that Tehran would prefer progress before the US midterms. For traders, the next question is whether the two sides take concrete steps…
WI level at the time of the auction: 5.078% High yield: 5.085% Bid to cover: 2.42X vs the average of 2.49X Indirects: 57.2% vs the average of 64.6% Auction grade: C− The auction was a little softer than average. The 0.7-basis-point tail was wider than the 0.2-basis-point average, meaning buyers required a slightly higher yield than the WI level going into the sale. The bid to cover was also below…
Reuters, citing sources, reports on discussions over a phased arrangement between Washington and Tehran: Iran signals flexibility on fees, not on the Strait of Hormuz. A senior Iranian official said the most plausible way to end the impasse would be a phased arrangement, with Iran allowing navigation through Hormuz in return for the US lifting its economic blockade and Tehran potentially gaining…
Reuters, citing sources, reports on discussions over a phased arrangement between Washington and Tehran: Iran signals flexibility on fees, not on the Strait of Hormuz. A senior Iranian official said the most plausible way to end the impasse would be a phased arrangement, with Iran allowing navigation through Hormuz in return for the US lifting its economic blockade and Tehran potentially gaining…
News text belongs to its source; only the headline and a short summary appear here.
