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I'll have details and implications posted separately. S&P Global / RatingDog PMIs, September: Manufacturing 52.1 expected 51.6, prior 51.5 Services 51.6 expected 51.1, prior 51.4 Background: China PMIs preview: official manufacturing seen back above 50 before holiday This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
I'll have details and implications posted separately. National Bureau of Statistics PMIs (September): Manufacturing 50.1 expected 50.1, prior 49.8 Non-Manufacturing 50.2 expected 49.3, prior 49.00 Composite 50.7 prior 49.5 Background: China PMIs preview: official manufacturing seen back above 50 before holiday This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
I'll have details and implications posted separately. ADDED, here it is: Australian dollar marked lower on the data Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug) 4% surging fuel prices impact expected 4.0%, prior 3.5% Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Aug) 0.4% expected 0.4%, prior 1.0% Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) (Aug) 3.6% expected 3.6%, prior 3.6% Trimmed Mean CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.2% expected 0.3%, prior 0.5% ---…
For the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the key message is that inflation expectations did not move as oil prices jumped, which ANZ described as encouraging while stressing it is early. Against that, wage expectations edged up and ANZ says spare capacity may be getting used up faster than the central bank assumed in its recent Monetary Policy Statement, a mild upside risk to its wage forecasts. The…
The industrial production miss and the softer retail print complicate the case for the Bank of Japan to move again quickly, and traders will weigh them against the strength implied by manufacturers' own projections for September and October. A former BoJ executive director has put the chance of an October hike at around 20% to 30%, so soft data could nudge that view lower, although the bank's…
The Australian dollar is the most direct read-through. A print at or above forecast would strengthen the case for further tightening and could support the currency and short-dated yields. A softer result, particularly in trimmed mean, would invite doubts about how far the central bank needs to go. Because the RBA has already moved, the data now shapes expectations for the next decision rather…
A move in the official manufacturing PMI back above 50 would be read as a modest positive for China-sensitive assets, including the Australian dollar, the yuan and industrial metals. For oil, the question is whether the data changes the view on Chinese fuel demand, and a soft non-manufacturing print would keep demand worries alive. With mainland participants away for a week from Thursday, any…
It's a packed data agenda during the Asian timezone today with Chinese data releases ahead of the week long holiday that begins tomorrow along with inflation data from Australia (following the RBA rate hike yesterday) and much more. I'll come back with previews of the Chinese and Australian data separately. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
JOLTS job openings 7.079M vs 7.225M estimate Sept US consumer confidence 81.9 vs 89.2 expected US July CaseShiller 20-city house price index +2.5% vs 2.2% expected Canada July GDP 0.0% vs 0.0% expected Deutsche Bank sees a copper crunch coming — and says $10/lb may be needed to fix it US offers up to 40 million barrels from the SPR Fed’s Barr expects GDP growth to pick up in the second half of…
Job openings: 7.079 million vs 7.225 million expected. July revised up to 7.335 million from 7.271 million. Job openings rate: 4.3%. Hires: 5.2 million. July revised up to 5.1 million. Quits: 3.1 million; quits rate 1.9%. Both unchanged. Layoffs and discharges: 1.6 million; rate 1.0%. Both little changed. US job openings came in 146,000 below expectations in August and fell by about 256,000 from…
Prior was 89.4 This is a terrible reading and reflects an increasingly dark mood regarding inflation and energy prices. It's a sharp drop through the Liberation Day and pandemic lows near 85. There is some real divergence in economic data in the last week as the S&P Global services PMI was very strong last week and this is very weak. I tend to think of the sentiment surveys now as more political…
Prior was +2.1% Monthly +0.3% vs +0.2% expected Prior monthly +0.2% FHFA data: National prices +2.6% y/y vs +2.3% prior +0.3% m/m vs +0.0% prior Some home buyers will be glad they did in July to lock in those mortgage rates because they've been climbing since and are now at cyclical highs. Overall, the US housing market is surprisingly healthy but home building and home improvement are in a deep…
Prior was +0.3% m/m (revised to +0.4%) August preliminary reading +0.2% July construction +1.3% Utilities +1.7% Manufacturing -0.9% on refinery outages Retail trade -1.0% led by -3.5% at gasoline stations Wholesale trade -0.4% This is a good reading considering the revisions that make for a very strong June number and the positive flash estimate for August that's based on better mining and retail…
Oil prices dipped briefly after The Atlantic reported that President Trump supports a plan to exchange the release of political prisoners for sanctions relief. The initiative, led by Trump's envoy John Coale, is still in its early stages, and Trump had reportedly expressed support for the concept several months ago. The headline matters for the oil market because any credible prospect of easing…
Headlines: Zcash remains supported by idiosyncratic catalysts, but macro headwinds limit further gains. What's next? Euro area economic sentiment slips in September as inflation expectations rise Silver remains at risk of further downside as US-Iran talks take centre stage AUD/USD risks bigger breakdown below 0.7000 as RBA rate hike fails to lift aussie Ethereum is coiling for a breakout amid…
The latest euro area sentiment readings are out: Economic sentiment 97.9 vs 99.0 expected; Prior 98.4 Industrial sentiment -3.8 vs -4.7 expected; Prior -5.0 (R) Services sentiment 6.1 vs 6.5 expected; Prior 5.6 (R) Consumer inflation expectations 35.2; Prior 33.0 Selling price expectations 20.3; Prior 16.9 (R) The headline isn't particularly encouraging as economic confidence slipped to 97.9 in…
Spain September preliminary CPI +4.9% vs +4.6% y/y expected Prior +4.3% Spain September preliminary HICP +5.0% vs +4.9% y/y expected Prior +4.6% The breakdownThe numbers are running hotter than expected with headline annual inflation climbing to 4.9%, its highest since February 2023. Meanwhile, core annual inflation is also seen accelerating further from 2.9% to 3.1% in September. That suggests…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight is the Spanish CPI report. Headline CPI Y/Y is expected to rise further to 4.6% vs 4.3% prior, but the focus will be on the Core measure which has ticked lower to 2.9% in the prior reading. The market is currently pricing roughly a 31% chance of an ECB rate hike in October, so if we get hot inflation numbers this week, we should see…
Singapore to allocate US$1.1 billion to five asset managers to boost its equities market Japan's Katayama says undervalued yen is problematic, agrees with Bessent on cooperation Australian household spending flat in August, missing forecasts ahead of RBA decision PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7411 (vs. estimate at 6.7177) State Street: Gold may test $4,000 on rate fears but $5,000 still…
The yen is the main read-through. Katayama's line that an undervalued yen is problematic, paired with her promise of close US Treasury contact, adds to verbal pressure on USD/JPY (around 157 in recent sessions) after August's joint intervention. Her denial that the government is reflationary and her stress on market-set rates may offer a little support to the yen and to JGB sentiment, but with no…
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