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Prior estimate 1.5% US Q2 GDP revised to 2.2% vs 1.5% expected; inflation measures soften Real GDP: +2.2% annualized vs +1.5% expected. Previous estimate +1.5%. Real final sales: +2.8% vs +2.3% expected. Previous estimate +2.2%. Consumer spending: +3.8%. Previous estimate +3.4%. GDP deflator: +6.1% vs +6.4% expected. Previous estimate +6.4%. Core PCE prices: +3.3% vs +3.6% expected. Previous…
Prior was 3.3% Headline y/y 3.4% vs 3.7% expected (3.7% prior) Headline m/m +0.3% vs +0.4% expected (+0.2% prior) Core PCE (excluding food & energy): Core m/m +0.2% vs +0.3% expected Prior +0.2% Consumer spending and income for August: Personal income +0.2% vs +0.4% expected. Prior month +0.4% Personal spending +0.9% vs +0.8% expected. Prior month +0.2% Real personal spending % vs +0.0% prior…
Prior was -118.9 billion The US international trade deficit in goods widened to $132.6 billion in August, up $13.7 billion from $118.9 billion in July. The increase was driven primarily by a larger rise in imports than exports. Goods imports climbed $17.4 billion to $336.1 billion, while exports increased $3.7 billion to $203.4 billion. The inventory data showed continued accumulation across both…
Prior was +38K Construction +15K Manufacturing +17K Natural resources and mining -1K Financial activities -16K Professional and business services -11K Education and health services +55K Leisure and hospitality +22K Wages for all workers +3.2% vs +3.2% prior Job stayers +3.0% vs +3.0% prior Job changers +4.8% vs +4.7% prior This is a good reading after three weaker ones. The caveat is that the…
Prior +2.9% HICP +3.3% vs +3.2% y/y expected Prior +2.9% Core CPI Y/Y +2.4% vs +2.4% prior This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
Headlines: European stocks slip back as oil and bond yields edge higher from session lows Gold extends the recovery amid renewed US-Iran deal hopes and dovish Fed's Williams comments French inflation jumps in September as HICP rises to 3.4% German state CPI readings point to inflation climbing back above 3% in September Germany retail sales rebound 1.3% in August after July slump German import…
Prior +3.3% HICP +4.1% vs +3.8% y/y expected Prior +3.2% Italy's preliminary September inflation data showed a significant acceleration in price pressures, with the consumer price index rising 4.2% y/y, up from 3.3% in August. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 0.7%. The acceleration was primarily driven by energy, with regulated energy inflation rising from 18.6% to 25.9% and non-regulated energy…
Well, the latest German state CPI readings are starting to paint a fairly clear picture ahead of the national report later today. The state readings released around the same time: Bavaria September CPI +3.2% vs +2.9% y/y prior Saxony September CPI +3.3% vs +2.9% y/y prior North Rhine Westphalia September CPI +3.3% vs +2.9% y/y prior Baden Wuerttemberg September CPI +2.9% vs +2.6% y/y prior The…
Germany September unemployment change 12k vs 1k expected Prior 4k Germany September unemployment rate 6.4% vs 6.4% expected Prior 6.4% The breakdownGerman unemployment rose significantly more than expected in September as the jobless figure grew by 12,000 to 3.01 million in seasonally adjusted terms. Despite that, the jobless rate remained stable at 6.4%. The labour office notes that while the…
Germany September unemployment change 12k vs 1k expected Prior 4k Germany September unemployment rate 6.4% vs 6.4% expected Prior 6.4% The breakdownMore to follow... What does the data measure?The unemployment change tracks the monthly change in Germany's seasonally adjusted number of unemployed people, while the unemployment rate measures unemployment as a share of the labour force. Why does it…
France September preliminary CPI +3.0% vs +2.8% y/y expected Prior +2.4% France September preliminary HICP +3.4% vs +3.1% y/y expected Prior +2.6% The breakdownThe pickup in French inflation was fairly broad, although energy remains the standout driver. Energy prices accelerated to +21.2% y/y from +16.7% in August, reflecting higher petroleum-product and gas prices. Services inflation also picked…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we get the French and German inflation data. The French HICP Y/Y is expected at 3.2% vs 2.6% prior, but the focus will be on the core measure which ticked lower to 1.1% in the prior month. The ECB is currently debating whether a rate hike in October is warranted, so higher than expected underlying inflation in the Eurozone will likely prompt a rate hike…
Germany August retail sales +1.3% vs +1.5% m/m expected Prior -3.4% The breakdownThe rebound here is notable, even if it misses on forecasts by a little. It at least substantiates that the drop in July ties much to a heavy decline in petrol station sales, following the end of the fuel discount that was in effect during May and June. Having said that, petrol station sales were flat in August.…
Germany August import prices +1.0% vs +0.7% m/m expected Prior +0.2% Germany August import prices +8.3% vs +8.0% y/y expected Prior +6.8% The breakdownImport prices rose another 1.0% on the month in August, pushing the annual rate up sharply to 8.3% from 6.8%. This marks the strongest annual increase since December 2022. Energy remains the main driver, with import energy prices up 43.0% y/y. But…
UK Q2 final GDP +0.5% vs +0.4% q/q prelim Prior (Q1) +0.6% UK Q2 final GDP +1.4% vs +1.2% y/y prelim Prior (Q1) +0.9% The breakdownIt is a mild revision higher to the initial estimate, reaffirming a more resilient UK economic picture in the second quarter. The services sector in particular held up relatively well, with output increasing by 0.6% during the quarter and estimated to be 1.7% higher…
German inflation will be one of the main economic data points to watch out for in European trading today, with the September reading expected to show a further pick up in price pressures. Here's what markets are looking for: CPI +3.1% y/y expected; Prior +2.9% HICP +3.2% y/y expected; Prior +2.9% The August report already showed inflation accelerating to 2.9%, with energy prices rising 10.5% on…
Goldman: Persian Gulf oil exports back at 2025 average after doubling in September USD/JPY slips to around 156.4 as half-year-end flows and Fed comments weigh China official manufacturing PMI returns to growth at 50.1, non-manufacturing 50.2 RatingDog China manufacturing PMI 52.1 tops forecast, services 51.6 also beats Australia August CPI 4.0% as fuel jumps, trimmed mean below forecast at 0.2%…
A return to growth in the official manufacturing survey, alongside a jump in the non-manufacturing index, gives China-sensitive assets a supportive final data point before the holiday. Factory strength matters for industrial commodities, including oil, and RatingDog's finding that manufacturers' input costs are being pushed up by metals and oil suggests demand for those inputs is holding up.…
Stronger readings from both surveys, ahead of a week-long Chinese holiday, give China-sensitive assets a supportive last data point before mainland markets close. The rise in manufacturers' input costs, driven by metals and oil, is the detail most relevant to commodity markets, since it suggests firms are absorbing higher energy and raw material prices rather than cutting purchases. Services…
The Australian dollar was lower after the data, as the softer-than-expected monthly trimmed mean reading was seen as the more encouraging signal for inflation. The market is pricing only around a 25% chance of a November hike, well below Westpac's stated base case that the RBA follows up next month, which suggests the market does not see another move as urgent. The risk for the currency is that…
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