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Headlines: US jobs report faces a higher bar as bond market tensions raise the stakes What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? Stocks rebound as bond yields cool, but NFP threatens to reset the mood How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events? Eurozone inflation jumps to 3.8% in September as energy prices surge ECB policymaker Rehn flags energy and AI risks…
It's the final countdown to the September non-farm payrolls report. Take a look at: Preview: September non-farm payrolls by the numbers That report highlights the seasonals around this number, which could make it a volatile one. Fed pricing is down to 7.1 bps for this month, which maps to 28%. That could swing on today's report and the wage numbers in particular. Yesterday's high prices paid in…
Eurozone September preliminary CPI +3.8% vs +3.6% y/y expected Prior +3.2% Eurozone September preliminary core CPI +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y expected Prior +2.4% The breakdownThe headline estimate reaffirms that inflation continues to surge higher in the euro area at the end of the third quarter. That is largely driven by energy prices, which jumped by 18.8% in September compared to the 14.3% rise in…
The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we get the Eurozone Flash CPI report. The headline CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.6% vs 3.2% prior, while the Core CPI Y/Y is seen at 2.5% vs 2.4% prior. Given the recent ECB commentary, we will likely need an upside surprise for the central bank to consider a rate hike in October. An in-line or even lower than expected figures will give the ECB enough reasons…
Welcome to another edition of NFP Friday. Typically, the US jobs report starts off with one question for markets. And that is how many jobs did the economy add during the month? But this time around, I would argue the bar is a little higher than that. Markets are heading into Friday's non-farm payrolls report with inflation concerns already running hot, and yesterday's ISM manufacturing report…
SEC proposes letting investment advisers and funds self-custody Bitcoin and other crypto Dollar hits highest since May 2025 before payrolls; Asia FX slips despite strong data Katayama eyes 7 trillion yen of idle funds as Kiuchi says Japan needs no excessive easing UBS sees three catalysts to steady Treasuries, says Fed hike pricing is too aggressive Reminder: India and mainland China markets shut…
Kiuchi's remarks reduce the risk of government pushback against further BOJ tightening, which is likely to be read as supportive of an earlier rate hike, coming on the same day Tokyo core inflation jumped to 2.7%. That could add to upward pressure on short-dated JGB yields and offer the yen some support. Katayama's fund review is modest relative to Japan's budget, but signals fiscal discipline at…
US September ISM manufacturing 54.5 vs 55.0 expected Canada Sept S&P Global manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs 53.0 prior US weekly initial jobless claims 197K vs 200K expected Fed’s Schmid: Rising long-term rates are starting to strain housing and commercial lending Fed's Jefferson: Weighing more data will allow the Fed to make a better call on rates Preview: September non-farm payrolls by the numbers…
Just the data in this post. I'll have more to come on this separately, analysis and implications etc. Japan Tokyo CPI (Sep YY) Headline 2.7% expected 2.5%, prior 1.9% Core 2.7% expected 2.4%, prior 1.8% CPI Ex Food and Energy 3.0% expected 2.5%, prior 2.0% Japan Jobs/applications ratio (August data) 1.18 expected 1.18, prior 1.18 Unemployment Rate (August) 2.5% expected 2.4%, prior 2.4% This…
Hong Kong's stock market reopens on Friday, October 2, after closing on Thursday for National Day, but mainland China's markets remain shut for the rest of the week-long holiday and will not resume trading until Thursday, October 8. The Hong Kong exchange trades at its usual hours on Friday, 09:30 to 12:00 and 13:00 to 16:00 local time, and again on October 5, 6 and 7. Those four sessions will…
The survey adds little to lift the New Zealand dollar, which has fallen to its lowest level in 11 months over the past 24 hours. Softer headline inflation expectations would ordinarily ease pressure on the RBNZ, but the late-month rise in expectations as oil climbed is the more relevant signal for traders, given fuel costs feed quickly into household price perceptions. If crude stays elevated,…
A Tokyo core print at or above 2.4% would reinforce expectations of a follow-up BOJ hike and could support the yen and push short-dated Japanese government bond yields higher, while a miss would give weight to the two board members who argued against the September increase. Because Tokyo leads the national figures by about three weeks, traders tend to read it as a preview of the nationwide trend.…
What's expected: Consensus estimate +910K (range +35K to +180K) August +162K July +21K Private consensus estimate +85K Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.1% vs 4.1% prior Participation rate 61.6% prior Prior underemployment U6 prior 7.7% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.2% y/y vs +3.1% prior Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.3% prior Avg weekly hours exp 34.3 vs 34.4 prior September jobs…
Construction spending: +0.9% MoM vs 0.0% expected. July revised to −0.1% from −0.5%. Annual spending rate: $2,203.1 billion. Year-on-year spending: −1.7%. January–August spending: −3.1% compared with the same period in 2025. August components compared with revised July levels, at seasonally adjusted annual rates: Private construction: $1,655.3 billion vs $1,637.7 billion. Up 1.1% MoM. Private…
Prior reading was 54.6 New orders 55.3 vs 53.7 prior Employment 52.7 vs 51.2 prior Prices paid 77.9 vs 72.3 expected Prior prices paid 71.1 The prices paid number is grabbing the market's reaction in the immediate aftermath of the report as it soared. US 30-year yields are at the highs of the day, up 5.2 bps to 5.69%, the high of the day. That dynamic is also weighing on equity markets. For…
Prior was 53.0 This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
Prior was 197K Four-week moving average vs 202.2K prior Continuing claims vs 1.725m expected Prior continuing claims 1.719m For background, initial jobless claims measure new applications for unemployment insurance in the United States, providing a timely indication of layoffs and changes in labor market conditions. Published weekly by the Department of Labor, the report is closely watched…
Headlines: Stocks feel the pinch as 10-year Treasury yields hit 5.33%, highest since 2002 US dollar hits three-month high as Treasury yields surge, EUR/USD cracks key support Oil shoots higher as the market starts to lose patience with the prolonged US-Iran stalemate Trump tells TIME the U.S. could resume or intensify attacks against Iran after the midterm elections US sees China invasion of…
According to the interview with TIME, Trump initially expected the conflict to last only four to six weeks, but seven months later there is still no clear end in sight. The conflict has disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, pushed energy prices higher and created significant economic and geopolitical consequences. Trump continues to defend the decision to launch the war, arguing that…
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