Not thousands of headlines. The few lines that move price. For traders: straight from the source, clear and simple.
S&P global composite Index for September 58.4 versus 50.4 preliminary. Last month 56.0 Services PMI 58.8 versus 50.7 preliminary and 56.5 last month Details Services PMI: 58.8. Prior 56.5. Strongest business activity growth since July 2021. Composite PMI: 58.4. Prior 56.0. Strongest expansion in overall business activity in over five years. New orders: Growth accelerated to its fastest pace in…
Markets: 10-year Treasury yields flat at 5.277% AUD leads, EUR and NZD lag Gold up 0.3% to $4,153 Brent crude up 0.3% to $102.60 European stocks mostly higher; S&P 500 futures down 0.1% Bitcoin up 0.3% to $86,099 It's a brand new week but same old story for markets. The softer US jobs report on Friday brought some relief to stocks and bonds, and while that hasn't gathered pace today, we're not…
Eurozone October Sentix investor confidence 2.7 vs 5.0 expected Prior 5.1 The mood among euro area investors has taken a step back in October, with the details being slightly more telling than the headline drop itself. The Sentix investor confidence index fell to 2.7 in October from 5.1 in the month before, missing expectations and pulling back from the more than four-year high in September. That…
Prior 52.5 Final Composite PMI 52.0 vs 51.7 prelim Prior 52.5 Key findings: Service sector output rises for third month in a row Input cost inflation strongest since June amid surging fuel prices Business optimism moderates from August's six month high Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: "Moderate output growth was maintained across the UK service…
Eurozone September final services PMI 53.0 vs 53.0 prelim Prior 51.6 Eurozone September final composite PMI 53.1 vs 53.1 prelim Prior 52.0 The breakdownThe final numbers reaffirm what we already know from the preliminary estimates, as private sector business activity increased at the quickest rate in nearly three-and-a-half years. That comes amid a continued improvement in demand conditions in…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than the final PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. The final readings are rarely market-moving because the markets react more to new information. That's why the preliminary reports are the ones that move the markets the most. We also get the Eurozone PPI data but that's almost never a market-moving…
The softer US jobs report on Friday might have offered markets some much-needed relief before the weekend but I don't think it changes the main thing traders should be watching this week. And that is still the bond market. The September jobs report showed non-farm payrolls rising by just 29k, well below expectations. 10-year Treasury yields initially fell on the release, dipping to a low 5.16%.…
Japan officials toughen tone on yen as USD/JPY holds near 158 Nikkei jumps 2.5% to three-month high as AI stocks rally on softer Fed hike bets Saudi Aramco cuts Arab Light price to Asia by $3, widest discount since 2020 Fed minutes preview: one more hike guidance meets softer data as October odds fade Oil slips toward $102 (brent) as G7 stock release and rising Gulf exports offset Houthi attacks…
Markets are unlikely to react unless the situation escalates, as contacts have so far tested negative and officials insist there is no outbreak. The main risk is confirmation of plague with secondary cases among those under observation, which could stoke broader health-scare headlines and modest safe-haven demand. Local industry is the most exposed channel: precautions at the nearby aluminium…
The survey leans hawkish for the BOJ despite softer headline growth. Output price inflation near record highs, rising payrolls and building backlogs point to capacity pressure that supports the case for another hike. S&P Global explicitly flags October as possible, which may firm up market pricing for a near-term move. That's supportive for the yen and a source of upward pressure on front-end JGB…
Oil is the main channel here. The surge in energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict lifted milk powder and aluminium, the main drivers of September's gains. Combined with a weaker New Zealand dollar, that gives exporters a solid boost in local-currency returns, which supports farm incomes and the terms of trade. The flip side is higher import and freight costs, which add to domestic…
Chalmers's warning on debt servicing costs puts the spotlight on the global rise in bond yields, which is now feeding directly into government budget arithmetic. That keeps fiscal supply and credit concerns on the radar for Australian government bonds ahead of the mid-year update. His focus on energy-driven inflation reinforces the case that oil is the main channel through which the Iran war…
The survey sends mixed signals for the Australian dollar and rates. Slower activity, job shedding and weaker confidence argue against further tightening. Accelerating output price inflation, running above its long-run average, supports the case for the RBA to stay hawkish. On balance, the inflation detail is likely to matter more to rate pricing, which limits the downside for the Australian…
There's no direct market read-through yet, because officials describe the situation as stable and close contacts have so far tested negative. And we all trust Russian officials, right? RIGHT? Unconfirmed health scares can still feed short bursts of risk aversion, especially if social media gets ahead of official findings. The key risk would be confirmation of a transmissible pathogen with spread…
A heads up for AUD traders, it's a Sydney holiday today. The Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) is open as normal but AUD liqudiity will be somewhat thinned out by Sydney's absence. The data agenda has data unlikely to impact too kmuch upon release. I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing. This article was written by…
The US employment report gave stock buyers something to cheer about on Friday. Payroll growth missed expectations, earlier months were revised lower and wage growth slowed. The initial reaction was lower Treasury yields, a weaker dollar and higher stocks as traders reduced expectations for another October Fed hike. However, the bond market did not hold that move. Yields reversed higher and ended…
The new trading week brings a lighter economic calendar, but there are still several events that can move currencies and yields. The main highlights are Monday’s U.S. ISM services report, Wednesday’s Federal Reserve minutes, Thursday’s ECB monetary policy accounts, and Friday’s Canadian employment and U.S. consumer sentiment reports. For traders, the question is whether the incoming data show…
Prior month factory orders 0.8% down from 0.9% previously Factory orders: +0.1% vs +0.1% expected. Prior +0.9% revised to 0.8%. Factory orders excluding transportation: +0.3%. Prior +0.7%. Durable goods orders: revised to −0.1% from 0.0% initially reported. Durable goods excluding transportation: revised to +0.2% from +0.3%. Durable goods excluding defense: revised to 0.0% from +0.1%. Nondefense…
White House NEC Director Kevin Hassett discussed the US jobs report and the administration’s economic outlook on Bloomberg TV: The jobs report was broadly in line with expectations, and the data point to a very strong consumer. He expects a strong holiday shopping season. The administration respects the Federal Reserve’s independence. He attributes higher bond yields to the strength of the…
Prior was +162K (revised to +133K) Two-month net revision -60K Unemployment rate 4.2% vs 4.1% expected Prior unemployment rate 4.1% Unrounded unemployment 4.1753% vs 4.1413% prior Participation rate 61.8% vs 61.6% prior U6 underemployment rate 7.6% vs 7.7% prior Average hourly earnings +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% expected Average hourly earnings 3.0% y/y vs +3.2% expected Average weekly hours 34.4 vs 34.3…
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