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Prior week initial claims 194K Prior week continuing claims 1.701M Details Initial jobless claims (October 31) fell 6,000 to 189,000. Prior revised to 195,000 from 194,000. Initial claims four-week average fell 2,250 to 194,750. Prior revised to 197,000 from 196,750. Continuing claims (October 24) rose 23,000 to 1,718,000. Prior revised to 1,695,000 from 1,701,000. Continuing claims four-week…
Articles: What Could Stop the Fed Raising Rates in December? Bank of England raises the Bank Rate to 4.00% as expected in a 9-0 vote Nasdaq futures rebound nearly 280 points. But buyers now face a crucial test Solana rallies as Republicans' midterm loss raises hopes of US-Iran war ending Oil prices tumble as Republicans' midterm loss sparks bets on Iran war exit; Trump still has the final say…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight is the Bank of England rate decision. The BoE is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 bps to 4.00%, marking the first hike in the current tightening cycle. Stronger-than-expected economic activity, improving labour-market conditions and persistent inflation pressures have weakened the case for keeping rates unchanged. The main…
Germany September industrial orders +4.4% vs +4.8% m/m expected Prior -10.6%; revised to -10.1% Germany September industrial orders +3.3% y/y Prior +3.2% (revised) The strong rebound in German manufacturing orders in September comes mainly from a notable recovery in the automotive industry. New orders there grew by 10.5% on the month, after new orders and production had been at a low level in the…
Bitcoin analysis after the US midterms: Bulls are back, but $82,000 could change everything 168 of 225 Nikkei stocks rise, but AI losses drag the index lower as the Topix rallies China blocks SoftBank’s $5.4 billion ABB robotics deal, FT says, in blow to Son’s AI push Gold jumps as oil slumps on Iran diplomacy hopes, an early test of Citi’s thesis Sidecars and exam days: two Korean market quirks…
A stronger trade surplus is modestly supportive for the Australian dollar, reinforcing the currency’s link to commodity prices. With energy prices elevated by the Middle East conflict, Australia is better placed than many importers, as LNG and coal export earnings help cushion a rising fuel bill. The data are unlikely to shift Reserve Bank of Australia expectations on their own, given the…
The data offer something for both sides of the BoJ debate: historically sharp cost pressures support further tightening, while slowing hiring and weaker confidence give the cautious camp ammunition. On balance, the release is unlikely to shift December pricing materially, leaving the yen more sensitive to the BoJ minutes and oil-driven inflation signals. Firms citing inflation as a drag on…
October US ISM services 54.5 vs 54.8 expected US final October S&P Global services PMI 56.1 vs 57.9 prelim US September international trade balance -105.0B vs -108.0B expected Canada Trade Balance ($C) for September +5.35B vs +4.1B estimate The biggest loser of the US elections was data centers EIA weekly US crude oil inventories -865K vs +877K expected US October ADP employment +86K vs +65K…
Perhaps the clearest takeaway from Tuesday's US midterms is that data centers are unpopular. After a short-lived construction boom, they provide little ongoing employment and drive up local energy costs. There were 41 local votes on data center curbs and 40 of them are on track to win, with margins in the 75/25% range. Microsoft and Amazon are heavily into the data center business, including huge…
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries says Democrats will pursue legislation to stop President Trump’s tariffs and bring an end to the war with Iran. He also wants to reverse Medicaid cuts and restore the enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits, placing healthcare costs at the center of his affordability agenda. The proposals target four areas: Tariffs: Reassert congressional authority over…
Prior was -1892K Gasoline -222K vs +153K expected Distillates -3565K vs -100K expected API data from late yesterday: Crude -5267K Gasoline +1427K Distillates -270K It's all about Trump and the Iran war today. There's a line of thinking that he will blame his advisors or others for the Iran war and look to wrap it up. In the post-mortems from the election, all sides are blaming an unpopular war…
Prior was 54.9 Prices paid vs 74.0 prior New orders vs 59.8 prior Employment vs 50.1 prior Business activity vs 56.5 prior For background, the Institute for Supply Management’s Services PMI is one of the most closely watched monthly gauges of the US economy. It’s released at 10 am ET on the third business day of the month, two days after its manufacturing counterpart, and is based on a survey of…
Prelim was 57.9 Prior was 58.8 Composite PMI 55.9 vs 57.6 prelim Coimposite prior was 58.4 Sentiment regarding future activity fell to its lowest since May Demand was reported to be high Sentiment was overall at its lowest since May This adds negative risk to the ISM services report at the top of the hour. I'm fearful that the Fed is behind the curve on inflation and that it's broadening. Of…
One of the clearest messages from Tuesday's US midterm elections had nothing to do with Republicans or Democrats. It was a resounding rejection of data centers. Communities across the country voted on dozens of ballot measures involving data-center construction, zoning, moratoriums and development restrictions. Almost everywhere, voters came down on the same side: against new development. The…
Prior month +4.2B The details of the Canada Trade Balance for the month of September: Merchandise trade balance: C$5.4 billion surplus. Prior C$4.95 billion surplus 9revised from C$4.20B. Exports: +0.2% MoM to C$78.6 billion vs C$78.41B prior. Prior +3.2%. Imports: -0.3% MoM to C$73.71 Billion vs C$73.46B. Prior -2.2%. Export volumes: -4.0% MoM. Import volumes: -2.5% MoM. Trade surplus with the…
Prior was -$105.6 billion Goods trade balance -135.0B vs -$134.9 billion prelim US-China balance -$21.87 vs -$18.4 prior Exports $321.51 billion vs $315.67 billion prior Imports of capital goods are a good measure of AI spending and that rose to $157.97 billion vs $146.41 billion previously. Expect that to stay high as long as the buildout continues. For background, the US international trade…
Details Prior was +90K Construction +13K vs +15K prior Manufacturing -1K vs +17K prior Natural resources and mining -8K vs -1K prior Financial activities +15K vs -16K prior Professional and business services -27K vs -11K prior Education and health services +28K vs +55K prior Leisure and hospitality +19K vs +22K prior Wages for all workers 4.7% vs +4.8% prior Job stayers 4.4% vs 4.4% prior Job…
Headlines: US midterms 2026: Who would've thought that a war would be a bad idea? US futures continue to trim losses after early beatdown but AI worries linger Macro pulse: What if good news for stocks turns into bad news for the bond market? Nasdaq futures slide after Trump's midterm setback. AMD and Arista are telling a different story. European stocks rebound in the opening hour as US futures…
Crude oil extended the selloff yesterday after Al Arabiya reported that the US and Iran had made concessions regarding the Iranian nuclear program and frozen funds, and that Washington had approved the draft of the Memorandum of Understanding. The report also added that the announcement would be made step by step and simultaneously. The bearish momentum then faded when Iran’s Secretary of Supreme…
Eurozone October preliminary CPI +4.0% vs +4.0% y/y expected Prior +3.8% Eurozone October preliminary core CPI +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y expected Prior +2.5% Headline annual inflation in the euro area climbs to 4% in October, hitting that mark for the first time since September 2023. Now, that's a doozy for ECB policymakers. The culprit is once again higher energy prices, with energy inflation…
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