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Reuters -- citing two sources -- reports that Yemen's President spoke to US President Donald Trump on Sunday. Yeme's President asked for miliary help but Trump made no pledges. Oil is down $3.38 to $92.77 today on hopes for a new round of diplomacy to find a way for the US and Iran to end hostilities. That move is boosting the entire risk complex. This article was written by Adam Button at…
Headlines: Crude oil falls on de-escalation hopes as focus shifts to the US General Assembly. What's next? Brent crude cools from recent highs, but $100 oil keeps bond markets on edge USD/JPY intervention risk grows as Japan holiday leaves yen exposed in thin liquidity Gold (XAU/USD) analysis: Consolidation ahead of key talks on the Iran war at the UN General Assembly China holds its ground as…
According to Xinhua news agency, China has now put a firm date on its next major political gathering. The fifth plenary session of the 20th Central Committee will reportedly run from 26 to 29 October in Beijing. The agenda is expected to centre again on strengthening self-governance, but I'd still expect markets to pay close attention to the economic signals coming out of the meeting. That is…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don't have anything on the agenda today as markets will likely remain in rangebound mode ahead of the UN General Assembly tomorrow and Trump-Xi meeting on Thursday. The most important one for markets should be the UN General Assembly as Trump is expected to hold a meeting with Gulf leaders to discuss the next steps in the war with Iran. Notably, the…
US president Trump and China president Xi will be meeting in Washington on 24 September this week. And from a markets perspective, I think the most interesting part isn't necessarily what gets signed. It is instead the position in which both leaders are negotiating from. On the one hand, China president Xi looks relatively comfortable coming into the meeting. China's export machine has weathered…
Trump flips twice on Houthi airstrikes after call with Saudi crown prince ICYMI: JPMorgan says Middle East oil flows holding up despite Saudi pipeline outage Blackstone's Gray says India is its best private equity market, nearing a tipping point All four major Australian banks now forecast RBA hike to 4.60% on September 29 US urges Americans to leave Iran as Trump weighs response to Tehran's…
The tone is constructive, but the reported outcomes are procedural and no tariff rates or purchase volumes have been given, so markets are unlikely to treat this as a breakthrough. US energy and agricultural exporters are the obvious sentiment beneficiaries if goods in those categories end up on the final Board of Trade list, though that depends on Chinese demand and tariff treatment that has yet…
US industrial production 0.0% versus 0.3% expected Kansas City Fed's Schmid: recent data suggest inflation trending above 3% Japan conducted an FX rate check earlier - report How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events? Markets: Gold up $41 to $4381 US 10-year yields up 6 bps to 5.01% WTI crude oil down $1.66 to $95.56 AUD leads, JPY lags US stocks finish flat Bitcoin up…
WTI crude oil on the November contract is trading down $1.64 to $95.60. That's something of a win for the bears, as it finished last week at $95.94. Since then, we've had a mixed series of updates on the pipeline attacks in Saudi Arabia but the latest ones say they're doing bypasses of the damaged pumping stations and could soon have half of the lost supply back online. I'd take those reports…
Prior month 0.2% US August industrial production and capacity utilization data: Industrial production MoM: 0.0% vs +0.3% expected. Prior +0.2% Manufacturing output MoM: -0.3% vs +0.3% expected. Prior +0.2% Capacity utilization: 76.3% vs 76.4% expected. Prior 76.3% US industrial activity was weaker than expected in August. Overall production was unchanged, missing expectations for a 0.3% increase,…
Headlines: USD/JPY jumps to 157 after BOJ rate hike as dovish dissents weigh on yen BOJ governor Ueda says will continue to tighten policy in response to economic, price developments BOJ governor Ueda says spring wage talks key to judging inflation trend ECB president Lagarde pushes back on automatic rate hikes as energy prices cloud outlook Gold price claws back toward $4,400 after dodging a…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low-tier releases like the Eurozone current account and Italian construction output. The data won't change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will likely be muted. AMERICAN SESSION In the American session, we get the US industrial production data but it's not going to change anything for…
UK August retail sales +0.5% vs -0.2% m/m expected Prior -0.5% UK August retail sales +2.4% vs +1.9% y/y expected Prior +1.6%; revised to +1.2% UK August retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +0.6% vs -0.2% m/m expected Prior -0.9% UK August retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +2.7% vs +1.9% y/y expected Prior +2.3%; revised to +1.8% The breakdownThat's a considerable beat on retail sales, with a modest rise…
Yen weakens on BoJ hike as two dissents temper hawkish read Alt headlines: Bank of Japan (BOJ) raises policy rate by 25bp, as expected Re Airbus, Pratt & Whitney: French airline has grounded a newly upgraded aircraft Goldman keeps $5,400 gold forecast intact despite Fed hike UBS sees two more RBA hikes to 4.85% terminal rate after Bullock's comments Bullock: RBA weighing whether policy is tight…
Just the data here, I'll have more to come on this separately. August y/y headline CPI 1.9% expected 2.0%, prior 1.9% CPI Ex-Food and Energy (AKA core-core CPI) 1.7% expected 2.0%, prior 1.8% Ex-Food CPI (AKA core CPI) 1.7% expected 1.8%, prior 1.8% Background: Preview: BoJ rate hike bet stays intact as Japan awaits August CPI Still to come: Preview: BoJ set to hike rates today, focus turns to…
New Zealand August data. Trade Balance -1349mn Annual Trade Balance -5.44bn Imports 8bn Exports 6.66bn Prior 7.22bn --- Food Prices (y/y) 1.9% for the m/m +0.3% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
US September Philly Fed business index +37.8 vs +30.5 expected US August housing starts 1.275m vs 1.309m expected US initial jobless claims come in at 196K vs 208K estimate Canada August producer price index +1.3% m/m vs +0.6% prior BOE's Bailey: Decision on rates will get more difficult the longer the Iran conflict continues US August pending home sales +0.3% vs -0.6% expected Former Atlanta Fed…
The Fed has set out to tackle inflation and they certainly have the tools to get the job done. How aggressively they use those tools and how the economy responds is less certain, so is the geopolitical backdrop. At the moment, the market is pricing in the thinnest rate hike in US history so the consensus is that inflation will be tamed relatively easily. I think it's worth considering how much…
US President Trump told Axios he is at a “critical juncture” regarding the war in Iran: The officials say Trump needs to decide soon on the way forward, partly because the US military can't stay in its current holding pattern much longer. “At some point you have to decide what is the end game.” Trump and Hegseth have ordered the military to maintain its level of forces in the Middle East until…
Prior was -2.3% Index at vs 71.2 prior This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
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