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Prior was 3.7% This isn't a surprise after the downgrade to the wholesale inventories data released earlier today. The next update ont his metric comes in a week but we're getting closer to the first release of Q3 GDP. The report said: "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2026 is 3.6 percent on October 8, down from 3.7 percent on…
Prior was +1.3% Wholesale sales +1.8% vs +0.8% prior US wholesale inventories measure the value of goods held for resale by merchant wholesalers, providing a snapshot of stockbuilding between producers and retailers or other business customers. Published monthly by the Census Bureau, the wholesale trade report includes sales and the inventories-to-sales ratio. An advance inventory estimate…
Prior was 197K (revised to 199K) Continuing claims 1716K vs 1708K exp Prior was 1701K (revised to 1699K) These numbers remain near ultra-low multi-generational lows. They're one of the best signs out there that the US jobs market is solid and that the Fed has room to hike rates. For background, US initial jobless claims provide one of the timeliest readings on the labour market, tracking new…
Prior week 197K Initial claims: 197,000 vs 200,000 expected. Prior revised to 199,000 from 197,000. Initial claims four-week average: 198,000, down 2,500. Prior revised to 200,500 from 200,000. Continuing claims: 1.716 million vs 1.708 million expected. Prior revised to 1.699 million from 1.701 million. Continuing claims four-week average: 1.711 million, down 12,250. Prior revised to 1.72325…
Markets: 10-year Treasury yields up 6 bps to 5.345% WTI crude up 4.1% to $92.60 USD leads, AUD lags on the day Gold up 0.2% to $4,121 European stocks lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.6% Bitcoin down 1% to $82,451 Once again, investors are dealing with the same old story in markets in European morning trade today. The bond market continues to come under pressure and that is leading to a more negative…
Ah, remember the days when borrowing money was almost ridiculously cheap? That did not seem too long ago but I think we can safely say that those days are looking rather distant now. Judging by how bond yields have continued to surge to fresh highs in decades, it seems that one thing is rather clear. If you want investors to part with their money, then you're simply just going to have to pay up.…
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Ethereum came under heavy selling pressure yesterday, falling around 5–6%. The move wasn’t triggered by a major Ethereum-specific negative development. Instead, the selloff was driven by a combination of deteriorating ETF flows amid a broader risk-off environment. US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded another significant day of outflows, extending the withdrawal streak to seven…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we have Fed's Waller speaking on the economic outlook and the ECB meeting minutes. The "economic outlook" speeches generally contain policy signals or guidance. Fed's Waller has been a great "leading indicator" both for the direction of Fed policy and the central bank's reaction function. The last time he spoke, he dialed down his hawkish language and…
Samsung profit tops 100 trillion won for first time, but shares slip Gold rebounds from two-month low, but Pepperstone says $4,275 break needed Japan's answer to FedWatch: TFX launches BoJ meeting-by-meeting rate futures China bucks global bond rout as 10-year yield touches 1.7% PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7367 (vs. estimate at 6.7254) Ethereum researchers urge crypto holders…
A gap of more than 3.5 percentage points between Chinese and US 10-year yields keeps downward pressure on the yuan and makes the currency attractive to borrow for carry trades, leaving the People's Bank of China leaning on capital controls and its daily fixing to contain weakness. Central bank buying signals that Beijing is comfortable with low rates, so a policy-driven reversal in Chinese bonds…
The survey reinforces Japan's acute sensitivity to the Iran war: with almost all crude imports sourced from the Middle East, any further disruption to Gulf shipping (like this), such as this week's tanker attack north of Qatar, feeds directly into corporate costs and margins. That leaves energy-intensive sectors such as materials, chemicals, cement and transport most exposed if oil stays…
The biggest news ahead of the session here today is that mainland Chinese markets reopen after a week long holiday. China's absence seems to have been keenly felt by gold! I'll pop more on gold separately. The data agenda should be not very impactufl: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
FOMC Minutes: Most participants assessed another hike would likely be appropriate by year end The US treasury sells $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 5.300% versus WI level of 5.317% Tropical Storm Isaias spins up in the Gulf New York Fed inflation expectations: One year inflation expectations hit the highest since 2023 EIA weekly US crude oil inventories -3186K vs +1722K expected…
The U.S. Treasury thousand $39 billion of 10 year notes: WI level at the time of the auction: 5.317% High yield: 5.300% WI level at the time of the auction: 5.317% Stop-through: 1.7 basis points vs the average of 0.3 basis points Bid to cover: 2.77X vs the average of 2.54X Directs: 17.2% vs the average of 17.0% Indirects: 80.34% vs the average of 74.1% Dealers: 2.54% vs the average of 8.8%…
The New York Fed survey of consumer expectations One year inflation 3.9% vs 3.6% prior Three year inflation 3.3% vs 3.2% prior Five year inflation unchanged at %3% Year-ahead expected spending rose to the highest since May 2023 Labor market expectations were mostly positive The Fed won't be happy about this but will take some solace in the flat 5-year number. But like many of them are saying,…
Headlines: Treasury yields continue to break higher as 30-year hits 5.70%, putting markets on edge Crude oil rebounds as persistent supply risks continue to outweigh improving physical exports Bitcoin dips as over $400 million in crypto longs are liquidated in just one hour Chart of the day: EUR/CHF is becoming a pressure gauge for Europe’s fiscal risks What are the FOMC meeting minutes and why…
It's a brand new week but the bond market is still not giving broader markets much room to breathe. Treasury yields are once again pushing higher again today, with the 30-year yields touching 5.70% - their highest since 2002. Meanwhile, 10-year yields are nudging up to around 5.32% and closing in on levels not seen in over two decades as well. When you look at the chart, the direction of travel…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than the French trade balance. The data won't change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted. The focus remains on French bonds after the recent surge in the OAT-Bund spread to the highest level since the European debt crisis. We've seen some narrowing this week. Some of the improvement might have…
If tariffs were supposed to bring down the US trade deficit, then the latest numbers clearly show that things are a reminder that things are not that simple. The US trade figures for August showed the deficit widening to $105.6 billion, up from $92.8 billion previously. But more strikingly, imports jumped 4.3% to a record $420.8 billion while exports rose by a much smaller 1.4% to $315.2 billion.…
The softer US jobs report on Friday last week continues to paint a softer picture of the labour market, yet there is still one part of the story that doesn't seem to line up. The September non-farm payrolls rose by just 29k, well below expectations of 90k, while the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%. Meanwhile, July and August were also revised down by a combined 60k and wage growth slowed to…
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