For European carmakers, a hybrid quota offers some relief from lower-priced Chinese competition at a time when Volkswagen, Stellantis, Mercedes and BMW are under pressure on profits, though the cap’s generous starting size and annual increases limit how much market share it protects. Chinese brands that have leaned on hybrids to sidestep EU electric vehicle tariffs face slower European growth,…
For the Australian dollar and front-end rates, the minutes carry more weight than usual because Bullock’s post-meeting tone was softer than the decision itself. A record that leans toward holding would support pricing for a pause and could weigh on the currency, while one that keeps further tightening clearly on the table would reinforce Westpac’s call for another move by year-end. Oil is the…
US stocks close higher; Nasdaq gains for fourth straight week Week ahead: US inflation and retail sales lead a busy economic calendar. Be aware. Let's Play... "More Bullish or More Bearish". How would I view the technicals for the Mag 7 stocks. This week we got a sneak-peak at the playbook for when the AI bubble bursts What's open and closed in US and Canadian markets on Monday Bakers Hughes…
Next week starts quietly, but it does not stay that way. The economic calendar gets going on Wednesday with the US CPI report, followed by Australian employment that evening. Thursday brings UK GDP before a busy 8:30 AM window in the US, with producer prices, retail sales, jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index all released at the same time. For traders, the question is how…
Prior was 48.1 Current conditions 44.7 vs 51.0 exp Expectations 47.3 vs 45.5 exp One-year inflation 4.7% vs 4.6% prior Five-year inflation 3.5% vs 3.4% prior This report used to be a market mover and fooled the Fed into hiking in the last cycle but it's increasingly unreliable and more a measure of the political mood in the US than anything. That said, the inflation expectations numbers are still…
Rate hikes by year-end BoE: 35 bps (86% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) 2027: 105 bps RBNZ: 33 bps (59% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) 2027: 109 bps Fed: 25 bps (80% probability of no change at the next meeting) 2027: 80 bps BoC: 21 bps (74% probability of no change at the next meeting) 2027: 105 bps ECB: 21 bps (81% probability of no change at the next meeting) 2027:…
In financial markets, credibility is built through the quality of the information you deliver, the analysis you provide and the audience you reach. This is what investingLive, formerly ForexLive built over the years. US Treasury Secretary Bessent has just hired Judy Shelton as adviser. She's an economist who was nominated to the Federal Reserve Board by President Donald Trump in 2019 and has…
Headlines: Oil prices ease as traders unwind the escalation risk premium after Trump rules out strikes on Iran Gold erases its weekly losses as Trump rules out attacks against Iran before the midterm elections Economic data spotlight: US inflation expectations in focus in today's Michigan consumer survey Markets: 10-year Treasury yields up 2 bps to 5.25% WTI crude down 0.9% to $90.68 Gold up 1.1%…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than the Swiss consumer confidence and the Italian industrial production. None of the data will change anything for the respective central banks, so the market reaction will be muted. Keep in mind that the risk sentiment has turned positive since yesterday after Trump said on Truth Social that the US is having…
Coming up later today, we'll have the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 1400 GMT. And while the headline estimate will offer some insight into how US consumers are feeling about the economy, I reckon the standout figure will be the inflation expectations figures. As a reminder, year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.6% in September from 4.0% in the month before.…
US refiners set for windfall Q3 profits as wars push diesel margins to records Gold rises toward $4,180 as Treasury yields ease from 24-year highs and dollar pauses Nasdaq CEO says tokenization could free tens of billions in trapped collateral Trump disclosed up to $1.6 million in Nvidia stock buys as he honoured CEO Jensen Huang PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7330 (vs. estimate…
The review is aimed as much at bond investors as at the budget, since concern over how Takaichi’s pledges will be funded has pushed 10-year JGB yields to multi-decade highs. Credible savings that cap new debt issuance near 40 trillion yen could ease some fiscal risk premium in long-dated JGBs and lend modest support to the yen. However, the first round’s thin results leave markets likely to wait…
The circa 5.5% drop in Oracle shares shows investors are sensitive to any sign that power constraints could delay AI capacity and push out the timeline for its free cash flow to turn positive. The force majeure notice on Project Jupiter raises the risk of disputes and delays at one of its most important sites. For natural gas, data centre demand is becoming a meaningful new source of consumption,…
The mixed readings are unlikely to shift Bank of Japan rate expectations decisively in either direction, limiting the immediate impact on the yen and Japanese government bonds. A smaller annual decline offers modest support to the case for tightening, but the weak monthly gain and nine straight contractions undercut the argument that consumption is recovering alongside wages. That gap between…
If the argument holds, the AI build-out is a source of upward pressure on bond yields, power prices and wages for scarce technical staff, which would keep financing costs high for sectors outside technology. That fits with this week’s 24-year high in 10-year Treasury yields, which Bloomberg partly attributed to AI-related corporate borrowing. For equities, the thesis implies widening divergence…
The index is not a market mover, but it supports the case that wealth flows toward jurisdictions with strong property rights and open capital markets, which favours established hubs such as Switzerland, Singapore and Hong Kong. The finding that capital markets and banking are the weakest pillars globally points to underdeveloped financial systems as a persistent constraint on investment in many…
Trump says: We will not be attacking Iran any time soon Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 tracker 3.6% vs 3.7% prior US August wholesale inventories +0.5% vs +0.7% expected US weekly initial jobless claims 197K vs 200K expected BOE's Bailey: Mon pol needs an unwavering commitment to returning inflation to target Arab sources: Several severe explosions have occurred in the Strait of Hormuz US treasury sells…
High yield: 5.618% WI level at the time of the auction: 5.617% Tail: 0.1 basis point vs the average of -0.1 basis point Bid to cover: 2.54X vs the average of 2.41X Directs: 20.89% vs the average of 20.6% Indirects: 72.32% vs the average of 69.1% Dealers: 6.79% vs the average of 10.3% Auction grade: B Overall, a solid auction. The high yield came in slightly above the WI level, producing a small…
According to Arab sources (unverified) there have been several severe explosions in the Strait of Hormuz. A tanker was targeted according to the source. Geopolitical risk from the Middle East remains a problem for traders. US stocks have reversed and moved back to the downside with the NASDAQ index testing the low of the old swing area highs between 27190 and 27288. The low price just reach…
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