China releases consumer and producer price data for September at 0130 GMT on Wednesday, which is 9:30 pm US Eastern time on Tuesday. Factory-gate inflation is the reading most likely to move markets, as higher global energy costs continue to feed through the economy. August sets the benchmark. Consumer prices rose 0.8% y/y, up from 0.5% and in line with forecasts, while the 0.4% monthly gain beat…
The US CPI report for September will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET. The report - along with the PPI on Thursday - will give traders another key piece of the inflation puzzle as markets assess whether the Fed will need to tighten policy further. Number crunchers will also be able to get a handle on the PCE and Core PCE from both readings. The expectations are seeing: Headline CPI month over…
Prior month 3.98 million Details for September Existing home sales annualized sales rate of 3.99 million versus 3.95 million estimate Existing-home sales: +1.5% month over month in September. Regional monthly sales:Increased in the South and West, unchanged in the Midwest, and declined in the Northeast. Year-over-year sales:Declined in all four regions. Market conditions:Higher inventory and…
Headlines: Solana underperforms as US spot Solana ETFs record net outflows, ending a 14-week inflow streak Long global semiconductors remains the most crowded trade followed by short US Treasuries, according to Bank of America Oil prices retreat despite persistent Middle East tensions and stalled US-Iran negotiations. What's next? Connecting the dots: How the AI boom could turn into the Fed's…
The latest Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey showed investors have become less optimistic about the macroeconomic outlook, while positioning in technology stocks remains near its most extreme level in six years. The survey was conducted between October 2 and October 8 among 161 participants managing $453 billion in assets. The Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey (FMS) is one of…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don't have anything on the agenda as traders continue to wait for further US-Iran developments and the US CPI report due tomorrow. Oil prices continue to drive pretty much everything, with the Middle East situation remaining basically unchanged. Yesterday's surge weighed on risk sentiment and dragged down stocks, cryptocurrencies, precious metals and…
German September final CPI +3.3% vs +3.3% y/y prelim Prior +2.9% Germany September final HICP +3.3% vs +3.3% y/y prelim Prior +2.9% The headline readings are unrevised compared to the preliminary estimates, but they do reaffirm that German headline inflation has climbed back above the 3% threshold at the end of the third quarter. Energy inflation is the main culprit, rising 3.8% within the month…
BoE’s Greene warns waiting for second-round inflation effects would be too late Goldman sees Europe reserve release cutting diesel by $11 but shrugs off Russian supply Australian business confidence slides to -13 as oil shock and rate hikes bite, NAB says Just 32 countries now drive 95% of global growth as AI widens the gap, IMF warns Kospi plunges more than 6% below 6,000 as chip selloff and oil…
Oil is the main pressure point: volatility tied to Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the broader Iran conflict is lifting costs and denting sentiment, so any further energy spike would likely push confidence lower still. The survey highlights the RBA’s dilemma, with businesses souring under higher funding costs even as the central bank, according to minutes released today, worries about domestic…
Oil is the pivot of the whole outlook: the IMF’s base case assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopens in March 2027, so any slippage in that timeline or escalation toward its $130 scenario would hit growth and lift inflation, keeping central banks on a hawkish path. The higher oil price assumptions, at $96 a barrel this year and $87 next, effectively validate a prolonged risk premium in crude.…
The miss trims some urgency from the hike narrative, but an annual pace near 7% and surging import costs leave the case for tightening intact, keeping Japanese yields and BOJ pricing sensitive to any hawkish signals. The weak yen is the key amplifier: with oil prices elevated by the Iran war, every leg lower in the currency raises the yen cost of energy and feeds back into pipeline inflation. A…
Georgieva’s framing of AI as both a demand and an investment shock lines up with this week’s hawkish Fed commentary, which also pointed to AI-driven capital spending as a source of persistent inflation pressure, strengthening the case that the AI boom keeps rates higher for longer. Her estimate that AI investment could add half a point to a full point to growth in advanced Asian economies…
The data offer little to change the picture for sterling or gilts on their own, but the mix carries a stagflationary edge: households are spending more on fuel while volumes in discretionary categories stay subdued. A near-17% jump in fuel spending shows how the oil and diesel shock is feeding into household budgets, which keeps upside risk on UK inflation even as underlying demand looks soft.…
US stocks close mixed Earnings calendar October 12–16: Big banks, ASML and TSMC take center stage Hammack de la Fed: Las tasas del Tesoro son “modestas” según los estándares históricos European stocks close higher. Spain leads while the dollar strengthens Gold falls toward hourly moving averages. Can sellers keep control? Bitcoin buyers had their shot above the 200-hour MA. They missed.…
Two releases this week will shape expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next move: the minutes of its September policy meeting, due Tuesday, and Thursday’s September labour force figures. Both come out at 11:30 am Sydney time, 00:30 GMT (8:30 pm ET the previous evening). Today we get the minutes. In September, the RBA’s Monetary Policy Board raised the cash rate by a quarter point to…
Markets: WTI crude +1.4% to $92.99 USD leads, CHF lags on the day Gold down 0.5% to $4,170 European equities higher; S&P 500 futures +0.1% Bitcoin down 0.3% to $83,345 It was a quieter session in European morning trade today as broader markets have to contend with a US partial market holiday to start the new week. The US bond market is closed in observance of Columbus day and while the stock…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don't have anything on the agenda today, so the price action might remain mostly rangebound as traders await the US CPI report on Wednesday and further US-Iran developments. Keep in mind that the market sentiment improved somewhat on Friday after Trump ruled out strikes on Iran before the November elections. Nevertheless, Iran said yesterday that the…
Just a heads up as we get into the new week that today is a US market holiday in observance of Columbus Day. While Wall Street may be open for business, the bond market will be closed. As such, traders will be missing a key piece of the puzzle to start the week given how Treasury yields have been dictating broader market sentiment as of late. The surge higher in long-end yields especially have…
Preview: TSMC tipped for sixth straight record quarter, with profit seen up 65% on AI demand Early Ethereum Foundation ETH recipients move $11M to Kraken: what the data shows Indian Rupee set for 1% rally as RBI curbs hedging rush that hit a record $77 billion People’s Bank of China sets yuan reference rate at 6.7313 (vs. estimate at 6.6977) Gold edges up in Asia on the energy truce narrative,…
MUFG’s framing underlines that energy is almost the entire story behind rising US headline inflation since the Iran conflict began, keeping crude prices tightly linked to Fed expectations. The core reading is the trigger for rates markets: an in-line 0.2% would likely keep October hike pricing subdued and leave the dollar and Treasury yields range-bound, while a repeat of August’s 0.3% would…
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