Not thousands of headlines. The few lines that move price. For traders: straight from the source, clear and simple.
RBNZ’s Conway says October rate decision completely open, OCR more likely to rise AUD lower: Australian jobs fall 39,300 in September, unemployment at five-year high of 4.7% BOJ’s Koeda says bank should not be overly cautious about raising rates Gold jumps around $40 as Treasury yields retreat from post-CPI high Talk grows that China is routing US Treasury holdings through Canada: Bloomberg…
If China’s holdings are more stable than reported, one of the market’s recurring worries, a steady Chinese exit from Treasuries, would carry less weight, which could ease some concern about foreign demand at US debt auctions. The theory also shows why headline foreign holdings data can mislead traders who read monthly declines as outright selling. Watch auction metrics such as indirect bidder…
Australian employment market data for September 2026. Employment Change -39.3K expected 20.0K, prior 39.5K Unemployment Rate 4.7% ... an unfortunate result which does take some reason away for further RBA rate hikes, at the margin ... AUD marked a little lower expected 4.6%, prior 4.6% Full-Time Employment +34.4K prior -6.3K Part-Time Employment -73.7K prior 45.8K Participation Rate 66.8%…
Data due at the bottom of the hour, 0030 GMT / 2030 US Eastern time: unemployment seen at 4.6% Australia jobs preview: NAB sees 20,000 gain, unemployment steady at 4.6% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
With NAB, Westpac and consensus all at 20,000 and three major banks seeing unemployment at 4.6%, the bar for a surprise sits mainly in the jobless rate. A drop to 4.5% would revive the case for further RBA tightening and could support the Australian dollar and short-dated yields. A rise to 4.7% would push the other way, adding weight to the view that four hikes are already doing enough. NAB’s…
US September CPI 3.7% vs 3.6% expected Canada August building permits rise 8.8% vs 2.0% expected Fed's Beige Book: Nine of 12 districts report growth as price pressures broaden Fed’s Goolsbee: CPI was discouraging, more bad months would be unacceptable Markets: WTI crude oil up 98-cents to $95.12 US 10-year yields down 2.3 bps to 5.19% Gold down $54 to $4103 USD leads, GBP lags S&P 500 down 1.2%…
Building permits: +8.8% MoM vs +2.0% expected. Prior revised to -15.8% from -17.3%. Total permit value: $13.6 billion, up $1.1 billion. Residential permits: $8.5 billion, up $1.1 billion. Multi-unit permits: $5.8 billion, up $1.1 billion. Single-family permits: $2.6 billion, essentially unchanged. Non-residential permits: $5.1 billion, down $29.8 million. Inflation-adjusted permit value: +8.6%…
Prior was 3.4% Unrounded +3.738% vs +3.397% prior CPI m/m +0.6% vs +0.6 exp Prior CPI was +0.4% Core readings: Core y/y 2.6% vs 2.5% expected Prior core was 2.4% Core unrounded +2.564% y/y vs +2.446% prior Core m/m +0.33% vs +0.2 expected Prior m/m +0.3% Unrounded m/m vs +0.318% prior Core goods +0.3% m/m vs +0.11% prior Real weekly earnings -0.5% vs +0.2% prior Supercore y/y +3.13% vs +3.022%…
Headlines: Bitcoin consolidates in a tight range ahead of the US CPI. What to watch next? Nasdaq analysis today as price is dancing around yesterday's close (but probably not for long) Crude oil extends gains as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia escalate, raising supply disruption risks China's September lending surprise masks a much deeper slump in credit demand Ethereum remains under pressure amid…
China's new bank loans climbed to ¥1.08 trillion in September, beating market expectations of ¥975 billion. At first glance, that seems like a welcome improvement especially after the rather dismal lending figures we've seen over the past few months. That being said, lending is still down roughly 16% compared to September last year. And adding to that, the year-on-date snapshot isn't pretty…
Spain September final CPI +4.9% vs +4.9% y/y prelim Prior +4.3% Spain September final HICP +5.0% vs +5.0% y/y prelim Prior +4.6% Spain September core CPI +3.1% y/y Prior +2.9% The final report confirms another uncomfortable rise in Spanish inflation in September, with headline annual inflation rising to 4.9% from 4.3% in August. The harmonised reading also jumps further to clip the 5% mark, the…
The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than the final Spanish CPI report. The market focuses more on preliminary data, so the final readings are almost never a market-moving release. Moreover, the data won't change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted. The price action might remain mostly rangebound ahead of the US CPI report, as…
Germany September wholesale prices +1.9% m/m Prior +0.9% Germany September wholesale prices +8.7% y/y Prior +6.8% The annual estimate indicates that German wholesale prices are 8.7% higher in September this year compared to the same month a year ago. That marks the highest annual price jump since February 2023 and will add to inflation concerns in the German economy. Much of the price jump this…
There's a lot riding on the US CPI report later today, especially with Treasury yields having threatened multi-decade highs over the past week. Going into the report, the consensus is that headline inflation is going to look rather ugly. The question now though is whether markets will actually care all that much. Headline inflation is expected to rise by 0.6% on the month, taking the annual…
China factory inflation hits 5%, fastest in over four years, as CPI lags at 0.9% Lagarde: no second-round effects yet, but ECB can’t wait until they are in full view Goldman Sachs says RBA minutes lower bar for November hike, with three hawkish signals Australia’s biggest planned IPO in 30 years pulled as AI infrastructure appetite cools China September CPI 0.9% y/y (expected 1%, prior 0.8%) PBOC…
The gap between surging factory prices and subdued consumer inflation points to an oil-driven cost shock, not demand-led inflation. That makes crude and commodity prices the main driver of China’s price data for now. China moving from exporting disinflation to passing on higher costs adds to global goods-price pressure, which is unwelcome for central banks already worried about energy-driven…
Producer Price Index (YoY) 5% expected 4.5%, prior 3.8% PPI +1.2% m/m (prior 0.4%) Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.2% expected 0.3%, prior 0.4% Consumer Price Index (YoY) 0.9% expected 1.0%, prior 0.8% Earlier: Economic and event calendar in Asia Wednesday, October 14, 2026 - China inflation data Just the data this post, I'll have more to come on this separately - details and implications etc. This…
The headline jump is largely priced in, so the market reaction will hinge on core. A print at the top of the forecast range, around 0.24% or higher, would back the Fed officials warning that inflation is broadening and firm December hike pricing, lifting front-end yields and the dollar. A reading at the soft end, near 0.16% to 0.18%, would support New York Fed President Williams’ view that price…
Tomorrow’s U.S. CPI report is the next big test for the markets. Will inflation remain concentrated in energy, or will the data show price pressures spreading more broadly? That question took on added importance after Susan Collins, president of the Boston Fed, reiterated her support for another rate hike before year-end. Tuesday’s market moves were mixed. The dollar gave back ground against all…
News text belongs to its source; only the headline and a short summary appear here.
