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Prior was +0.7% m/m (revised to +0.5%) Export prices +2.2% vs +1.0% expected Prior export prices were +0.6% (revised to +1.2%) Import prices y/y 8.1% vs +7.0% prior It's been an ugly week for inflation data. The market seems to think the Fed can tame it by waiting until December but that's some serious imported inflation that's going to be working its way through prices for awhile. The Bureau of…
Headlines: Gold shrugs off hot inflation data as market focus may be shifting to growth concerns How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events? Chart of the day: 10-year Treasury yields hit reverse this week but the real test is still ahead Eurozone September final CPI +3.8% vs +3.8% y/y prelim Markets: NZD leads, USD and JPY lag on the day 10-year Treasury yields up 2.5…
Eurozone September final CPI +3.8% vs +3.8% y/y prelim Prior +3.2% Eurozone September final core CPI +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y prelim Prior +2.4% There are no changes to the preliminary estimates, with euro area headline inflation confirmed to have surged to 3.8% in September. That marks a notable acceleration from the 3.2% estimate in August, with energy price inflation being the main culprit. Of note,…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we only have the final Eurozone CPI report. The final data is almost never market-moving because the markets react more to new information, which is given by the preliminary data. As a reminder, the ECB is expected to keep interest rates steady at the upcoming meeting due to lack of clear second-round effects and the recent bond market woes. Traders…
Warsh won’t prejudge rest of 2026, names October and December as decision points Tesla unveils thruster-powered Roadster with $50,000 deposit, production slated for 2028 Bailey says UK second-round inflation effects subdued so far, too early to judge Ethereum whale’s $13.45M loss reflects a year-long exit, not a fresh ETH dump Google’s 40-fold quantum leap: big for Willow, smaller for Alphabet’s…
There's something that is not quite adding up in trading this week. We've had two hotter-than-expected US inflation readings in the space of two days, and yet Treasury yields are actually moving lower instead of higher. Now, that is not quite the reaction you would expect from the bond market especially after having seen yields threaten multi-decade highs in the past week or so. US headline CPI…
The data adds to a mixed picture for the New Zealand dollar, with weak household spending offsetting the stronger manufacturing survey released earlier in the day. A second monthly fall in card spending points to soft domestic demand, which tends to argue against tighter policy, while flat food prices remove one source of upward pressure on inflation for the month. Fuel costs, which manufacturers…
The stronger reading is mildly supportive for the New Zealand dollar, adding to evidence that the goods side of the economy is gathering pace into year-end. Firm new orders and production point to near-term resilience, while the return to growth in employment is the detail policymakers are likely to watch most closely. Fuel prices remain the main cost pressure cited by firms, so any further rise…
US September PPI 6.3% vs 5.3% expected US October Philly Fed business index +20.9 vs +28.4 expected US October Empire Manufacturing index +25.50 vs +10.25 expected US retails sales for September 0.8% MoM vs 0.3% estimate. Prior month 1.3% Canada August manufacturing sales +1.5% vs +1.1% expected US initial jobless claim 199K vs 200K estimate US August business inventories +0.4% vs +0.4% expected…
Prior was +0.8% Retail inventories ex-autos vs +0.8% prior For background, the US business inventories report, formally the Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales release, is published monthly by the Census Bureau about six weeks after the reference month ends. It combines inventory and sales data from three sectors: manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers. Together they cover the bulk of…
Initial jobless claims: 199,000, up 1,000. Prior revised to 198,000 from 197,000. Initial claims four-week average: 198,500, up 250. Prior revised to 198,250 from 198,000. Continuing claims: 1,710,000 for the week ending October 3, down 4,000. Prior revised to 1,714,000 from 1,716,000. Continuing claims four-week average: 1,708,750, down 1,750. Prior revised to 1,710,500 from 1,711,000. Insured…
Prior was -0.4% (revised to -0.3%) Wholesale trade -1.6% vs -1.5% expected Prior trade +0.3% (revised to +0.4%) Statistics Canada publishes two monthly reports that track activity in the goods-producing side of the economy: the Monthly Survey of Manufacturing and the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey. Both arrive first as advance “flash” estimates, roughly three weeks after the reference month ends.…
Prior 1.3% Details Retail sales MoM: +0.8% vs +0.3% expected. Prior revised to +1.2% from +1.1%. Retail sales excluding autos MoM: +0.9% vs +0.5% expected. Prior revised to +1.4% from +1.3%. Retail sales excluding gasoline and autos MoM: +0.2%. Prior revised to +1.2% from +1.1%. Retail control group MoM: +0.1% vs +0.3% expected. Prior revised to +1.4% from +1.2%. US retail sales were stronger…
Prior was +37.8 Details: New orders 4.3 versus 29.2 last month Shipments 15.3 versus 27.7 last month Unfilled orders 2.4 versus 20.4 last month Delivery times 8.5 versus 26.5 last month Inventories -12.8 versus -12.5 last month Prices paid 43.2 versus 48.6 last month Prices received 40.1 versus 31.3 last month Number of employees 9.1 versus 11.8 last month Average employee workweek 7.5 versus…
Prior was +7.60 Manufacturing activity in New York State expanded in October, with the Empire State Manufacturing Survey’s general business conditions index climbing 18 points to 25.5, its highest reading since December 2021. The stronger headline reading was supported by a sharp increase in new orders and a solid rise in shipments, pointing to improving business activity. The new orders index…
Prior was 5.4% PPI final demand m/m vs +0.5% expected Prior m/m +0.4% Ex-food and energy y/y vs+4.4% expected Prior ex-food and energy 4.6% y/y Ex-food and energy m/m vs +0.3% expected Prior ex-food and energy +0.2% m/m Ex-food, energy and trade y/y vs +4.7% prior Ex-food, energy and trade m/m vs +0.3% prior The Producer Price Index (PPI), published monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics,…
Headlines: Ethereum extends losses after the US CPI as risk sentiment deteriorates further. What's next? Why do altcoins crash so much harder than Bitcoin? Oil remains supported amid persistent Middle East tensions as US weighs using "Mother of All Bombs" Bitcoin sinks after the US CPI as markets get increasingly worried about the growth outlook US inflation worries aren't over yet as PPI and…
The hotter-than-expected US CPI report yesterday was already enough to give markets a bit of a headache. And despite the initial surge higher in Treasury yields fading, there's still evidence of jitters with equities staying under pressure today. So if investors are hoping for some breathing room to get by, I'm afraid there might be more bad news to deal with as we're not quite done with the…
France September final CPI +3.1% vs +3.0% y/y prelim Prior +2.4% France September final HICP +3.4% vs +3.4% y/y prelim Prior +2.6% France September core CPI +1.5% y/y Prior +1.1% The final figures for September are out and they're not exactly offering much comfort for the ECB. The annual readings confirm another notable jump in price pressures, adding to the inflation concerns we've been seeing…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight was the UK GDP data which came out higher than expected. Overall, it didn't change much for the BoE other than strengthening further the case for a rate hike at the upcoming meeting, which was already priced in anyway. Traders are expecting a total of four rate hikes by the end of 2027. Looking ahead, we don't have much on the agenda…
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