Not thousands of headlines. The few lines that move price. For traders: straight from the source, clear and simple.
Prior was 3.0% CPI +0.1% m/m vs +0.2% expected BOC core 2.2% y/y vs 2.4% prior BOC core 0.0% m/m vs +0.1% prior CPI median 1.9% vs 1.9% expected (prior was 2.0%) CPI trim 1.8% vs 1.9% expected (prior was 1.9%) CPI common 2.4% vs 2.6% prior This is a good report from the Bank of Canada and should ease pressure on them to hike rates. At the same time, that's a negative for the Canadian dollar and…
Headlines: US futures look to rebound after tech rout but the real test is still ahead European stock market open: French unrest weighs on stocks to start the new week Gold eyes another run at $4,200 but the bond market still holds the key Gold remains supported as real yields fall amid growth concerns. What to watch next? Bitcoin rebounds from a key support as risk sentiment improves on falling…
Al-Arabiya is saying that a breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations is expected to be announced this week as negotiators are working to narrow differences and secure mutual concessions to prevent a renewed escalation. The timing of the report is interesting as we approach the US midterm elections due on November 3. Trump has a strong political incentive to end this costly conflict and ease pressure…
There's going to be plenty of watchful eyes on the UK CPI report this Wednesday, not least with the autumn budget just around the corner. Another hot set of inflation numbers could very well make life rather uncomfortable for both the government and the BOE. The headline annual inflation estimate is expected to rise to 3.4% in September, up from 3.1% in August. Meanwhile, core annual inflation is…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don't have anything on the agenda. Markets have been in a risk-on mode during the Asian session, potentially due to Trump's waiver of several Russia sanctions that helped ease oil prices. This is an attempt to ease fuel shortages and contain prices without making concessions to Iran, but Ukraine's attacks on energy infrastructure keep the risk premium…
Summary: The euro opened lower on escalating riots in France, drone incidents over the Black Sea and US warnings over EU tech rules, then recovered most of the gap Oil edged lower after Trump signed an order waiving some sanctions and duties on Russian energy, with the US set to receive more than 300,000 tonnes of Russian diesel Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and Iran’s conditions for reopening…
A modest beat across the board supports the Australian and New Zealand dollars and broader Asian risk sentiment, though the relief is tempered by weak investment. For oil, firmer industrial output and retail sales from the world’s largest crude importer offer some support to the demand side, at a time when Iran war disruptions are already keeping supply risk elevated. Industrial metals and iron…
State buying and selling curbs typically put a floor under Chinese equities in the short term, so near-term downside in mainland indices may be more limited than global tech peers suggest. That support is administrative rather than fundamental, and rallies built on directed buying have often faded once the intervention eases. The yuan and Chinese government bonds, which have held up well this…
Retail Sales (YoY) 1.1% expected 0.5%, prior 0.4% Industrial Production (YoY) 5.5% expected 5.4%, prior 5.2% Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) -7.2% expected -7.3%, prior -7.2% Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q3) 4.5% expected 4.4%, prior 4.3% Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q3) 1.2% expected 1.1%, prior 0.9% ADDED, write up here: China Q3 GDP beats forecasts at 4.5%, retail sales grow at fastest…
Smaller price declines are mildly encouraging for Chinese property developers and for sentiment toward the yuan, but they are unlikely to shift the market narrative on their own. Oil is the bigger channel: as the largest crude importer, China’s domestic demand matters for prices at a time when the Iran war is already squeezing Gulf supply, and any weak consumption or investment data would temper…
The repricing so far is selective rather than AI-wide: the heaviest pressure falls on companies that need outside capital to build, including Oracle, SoftBank and former bitcoin miners turned AI hosts such as Cipher and TeraWulf, while cash-rich hyperscalers like Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon are far less exposed and some of their shareholders may welcome slower capex. The second-order…
For oil, China’s position as the largest crude importer makes this release a demand signal at a sensitive moment, with the Iran war already squeezing Gulf supply. Soft domestic numbers would temper the demand side of the oil story even as supply risk keeps prices elevated. The Australian and New Zealand dollars, as proxies for Chinese growth, are exposed to any downside surprise, and the…
A wider trade gap is a modest negative for the New Zealand dollar at the margin, since a larger external deficit means more reliance on foreign funding. Oil is the key channel to watch: with the Iran war keeping crude prices elevated, any confirmation that fuel drove the import jump would point to imported inflation pressure the RBNZ cannot ignore. That cuts against the dovish read from soft…
A reading barely above 50 does little to shift the outlook for the New Zealand dollar, which takes its lead from global risk sentiment and rate expectations more than from second-tier surveys. A soft employment component and persistent concern over interest rates point to an economy still sensitive to borrowing costs, which supports the case for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to stay cautious.…
Data from China the focus on the ecnomic info agenda. I'll get a preview posted separately. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
The warning adds a fresh transatlantic trade risk to a market that had largely treated EU digital regulation as a compliance issue rather than a trigger for US countermeasures. European exporters with heavy US revenue exposure are the most obvious channel if rhetoric turns into action, while EU satellite and telecom operators that would benefit from reserved spectrum now face a more contested…
The euro is lower in early Asia-Pacific trade, though liquidity is very thin with New Zealand effectively the only FX market open, so early moves may overstate conviction. A fresh airspace violation on NATO’s eastern flank adds a geopolitical risk premium to the single currency, and escalating riots in France and elsewhere in the EU are also weighing on the euro. For energy and freight markets,…
BOJ’s Ueda: We will continue to raise rates as underlying inflation approaches 2% US September import price index +1.1% vs +0.8% expected US September industrial production +0.7% vs +0.4% expected US fiscal 2026 budget deficit was the largest in five years Markets: Gold down $2 to $4168 US 10-year yields down 2 bps to 5.09% S&P 500 down 1.2% Nasdaq down 2.3% WTI crude oil up $3.40 to $101.37 NZD…
September 2025 was a $198B surplus Outlays $585B vs $346B a year ago Receipts $558B vs $544B a year ago FY2026 deficit $1.992 trillion vs $1.775T in FY2025, the largest in five years FY2026 gross interest on the debt: record $1.36T, up $144B (12%) Interest is now the main driver of the deficit. The $144B rise in interest costs accounts for about two-thirds of the $217B increase in the full-year…
Prior was 0.0% (revised to +0.1%) Capacity utilization 76.9% vs 76.5% exp Manufacturing output +0.3% vs +0.3% exp Prior manufacturing output -0.3% (revised to -0.2%) Mining +0.2% Utilities +3.5% Machinery +1.4%, primary metals +1.6%, electrical equipment +1.3%, chemicals +1.0%. The headline is flattered by utilities. Electric utility output jumped 3.7% m/m and is up 9.6% y/y, and the utility…
News text belongs to its source; only the headline and a short summary appear here.
