Baker Hughes US oil rig count rises 1 to 460. Total rigs unchanged at 603 US expected to remove 50% tariffs on some Canadian products as soon as today - report UMich final October final consumer sentiment 48.0 vs 46.3 expected Canada August retail sales +1.2% vs +1.3% expected US S&P Global flash October services PMI 57.9 vs 58.0 expected Markets: Gold down $24 to $3999 WTI crude oil up $4.01 to…
Trump at a rally says they may do "another operation" against Iran. We may do another little Epic Fury We'll take care of Cuba on our way back from Iran The market is certainly betting that Trump is going to do something in the short term, which is why oil has been so strongly bid in the past two days. Meanwhile, The IRGC Navy said in a statement Friday that two supertankers struck naval mines…
Election season is doing what trade negotiators couldn’t. The Wall Street Journal reports the US is preparing to lift 50% tariffs on some Canadian agricultural and forestry products, with a proclamation possibly coming as soon as today. The motivation is political: Maine Sen. Susan Collins has been lobbying for relief and is in a dead heat with Democrat Troy Jackson with less than two weeks to go…
Prior was 46.3 Prelim was 48.1 Current conditions 46.7 vs 50.9 prior Expectations 48.4 vs 46.3 prior 1-year inflation 4.7% vs 4.7% prior 5 -year inflation 3.5% vs 3.5% prior This indicator is near all-time lows but in the last number of years it's morphed into more of a political indicator than a spending one. The Fed still watches the inflation numbers though. The University of Michigan’s…
Prior was 59.8 Manufacturing 56.0 vs 55.5 expected Prior manufacturing 57.0 Composite 57.6 vs 58.4 prior selling prices rose at the sharpest rate since August 2022 New orders highest in over four-and-a-half years Business output expectations for the 12 months ahead cooled compared to September but were still the second highest seen this year One of the big surprises last month -- and one that the…
The advance August reading was +1.3% Prior was -0.7% Sales up in all 9 subsectors, led by motor vehicles Ex-autos +1.2% vs +1.0% expected Prior ex-autos was -0.7% September advance sales +0.7% The advance (or flash) reading is the real market mover in this report now as it generally corresponds with the final reading. The +0.7% m/m number for September is a good sign of ongoing strength. RBC last…
Headlines: Falling Treasury yields may be hiding a darker story about the AI boom Crude oil extends gains as Saudi-Houthi conflict and concerns of US-Iran attacks keep the market supported Gold gets caught in market liquidation despite falling real yields supporting higher prices France October PMI slumps back into contraction as political uncertainty weighs on demand Germany October flash…
Prior 52.1 Manufacturing PMI 52.8 vs 51.7 expected Prior 51.9 Composite PMI 53.1 vs 51.8 expected Prior 52.0 Key findings: Business activity growth accelerates to its fastest since February, helped by rebound in new orders Comment: Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The UK economy has picked up momentum in October, with early PMI data indicating the…
Eurozone October flash services PMI 51.7 vs 52.5 expected Prior 53.0 Eurozone October flash manufacturing PMI 52.4 vs 52.7 expected Prior 52.9 Eurozone October flash composite PMI 51.9 vs 52.7 expected Prior 53.1 After the softer prints from France and Germany, the weaker-than-expected results for the overall euro area are not all too surprising. But at least for now, business activity continues…
Eurozone October flash services PMI 51.7 vs 52.5 expected Prior 53.0 Eurozone October flash manufacturing PMI 52.4 vs 52.7 expected Prior 52.9 Eurozone October flash composite PMI 51.9 vs 52.7 expected Prior 53.1 Details to follow... This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
Prior 53.9 Services PMI 51.7 vs 52.5 expected Prior 52.9 Composite PMI 52.8 vs 53.3 expected Prior 53.8 Key findings: Economic activity softens in October Comment: Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: "October's flash PMI results encouragingly showed a sustained upturn in business activity across Germany, although a slowdown in growth underscored that the…
France October flash services PMI 48.4 vs 50.7 expected Prior 51.2 France October flash manufacturing PMI 49.3 vs 50.5 expected Prior 50.6 France October flash composite PMI 48.4 vs 50.5 expected Prior 51.1 That's not a good sign as the French private sector falls back into contraction in October, amid political and financial concerns. Weighing on activity levels was the sharpest decline in…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we get the Flash PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. Given the current growth concerns, disappointing PMIs could add to fears that the recent tightening in financial conditions and the elevated energy prices are starting to strangle the economy. This scenario should result in a dovish repricing further out the curve, with traders pricing in…
The UK retail sales release will be one of the main items to watch out for in the economic calendar today, especially after the latest inflation and labour market figures have given the BOE plenty to think about ahead of its November meeting. For the September report, retail sales are expected to fall by 0.1% on the month, following a 0.5% increase in August. Meanwhile, retail sales are expected…
HSBC’s RedCoin stablecoin goes live in Hong Kong: what the launch answers, and what it still doesn’t Gold drops below $4,000 for first time since July as yields and dollar weigh Three AI listings stalled in a month: the money behind the AI boom is getting pickier Japan’s 2.4% underlying inflation puts a higher BoJ terminal rate in play PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7180 (vs.…
The survey gives the BoJ a mixed but broadly workable backdrop: steady growth and persistent cost pressure support further policy normalisation, while weaker hiring and softer demand argue for a gradual pace. For the yen, the data are unlikely to shift expectations much on their own, coming alongside this morning’s above-forecast core-core CPI reading. In JGBs, the combination of solid activity…
Japan CPI, September 2026: Headline CPI 2.1% expected 2.1%, prior 1.9% Core CPI 2.1% expected 2.1%, prior 1.7% Core - core (ex-Food and Energy) 2.4% expected Exp. 2.3%, prior 1.9% this the closest to US core inflation Background to this here: Japan CPI preview: core seen at 2.1%, topping BoJ target for first time since December This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
The survey shows weaker activity alongside firmer inflation, a difficult mix for rate expectations. Falling output argues against further tightening, while faster input and output price growth argues against easing. That uncertainty could add volatility to Australian dollar and short-dated bond pricing as traders weigh the two signals. Energy is a key channel: firms cited higher energy, shipping…
Nasdaq sinks as chip stocks tumble Mag 7 under pressure: Apple bucks the selling Bitcoin follows the flows and today that flow is "risk-off" and selling. The evidence mounts that the US dollar is leveraged to the AI trade US treasury excels $26 billion of five-year tips at a high yield of 2.367% US 10-year yields fall, near 5% level but it's for the wrong reasons Crude oil buyers remain in…
USD/JPY has held a tight range this month between just under 157 and just under 159, with the 200-day EMA just above 157.50. A firm print would test the lower end of that range, while a soft one would push the pair back toward 159, where intervention risk becomes the main defence for the yen. In JGBs, the 2-year and 5-year sectors are the most exposed to any repricing of December hike odds, with…
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