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US October non-farm payrolls +165K vs +65K expected Canada Employment change for October -4.7K vs 13.6K estimate. Unemployment rate 6.7%. Iran responds positively to latest mediator proposal - report November US UMich prelim consumer sentiment 51.0 vs 48.0 expected Iran reviewing proposals to curb nuclear program - report BOJ's Ueda: Consumer prices now around 3% and expected to rise further into…
US stock markets started strong and we saw 10% bounces in beaten-up memory stocks. It didn't last but it also didn't break down. Some notable names: MU +5.1% SNDK +3.5% INTC +7.7% SKHY +2.8% NVDA +2.8% QCOM +5.8% The hyperscalers were near flat and the indexes were higher but didn't finish at the highs. I wouldn't give the win today to the bulls or the bears. It was a nice day but came after a…
We are talking to Iran We are doing well with Iran I want Stephen Miller to run things well as chief of staff Stephen gets it, he'll do a great job I wanted to make a change It's not clear if Wiles quit or Trump 'wanted to make a change'. There isn't much of a signal on Iran but there hae been some late-day bids in crude, almost certainly on fears of weekend escalation. Meanwhile, SNN reports…
White House chief of staff Susie Wiles will be leaving her post, President Trump reported. She will move over to the Trump political operation, he said. Her replacement is Stephen Miller, who Trump said is "one of my most trusted advisors". Miller was the deputy chief of staff. Bloomberg reports that Wiles resigned on Thursday night, so this impetus could have come from her, rather than Trump. In…
US stocks are giving back some of their gains as a report circulates that Microsoft is winding down an arrangement with Oracle for AI cloud capacity. Details on the scope and timing of any wind-down remain unconfirmed. Oracle shares are trading at $111.35 after reaching a session high of $119.70. The stock fell as low as $109.21 in the current hourly bar, its lowest level since February 2024.…
The US is pressing China to immediately fulfill the commitments Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping made in Busan, South Korea, in October 2025. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer raised concerns with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and stressed that further progress depends on concrete results. Rare earths are the sticking point. US officials…
Prior was 46.3 Current conditions vs 48.0 expected Expectations vs 49.5 expected One-year inflation vs 4.7% prior Five-year inflation vs 3.5% prior The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers is one of the oldest measures of US household sentiment but it's lost its lustre in financial markets due to readings that don't correspond with spending. The preliminary reading is released at 10 am…
Al-Arabiya cited an Iranian source who says that Iran is responding positively to the latest proposals presented by mediators. Now Tehran is waiting for practical steps from Washington to build trust. Oil is under pressure after this report and stocks are bid. The S&P 500 is up almost 1% and the Nasdaq nearly 2%. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
Prior was +29K (revised to +60K) Two-month net revision +84K Unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.2% expected Prior unemployment rate 4.2% Unrounded unemployment 4.141% vs 4.1753% prior Participation rate 61.9% vs 61.8% prior U6 underemployment rate 7.9% vs 7.6% prior Average hourly earnings +0.4% m/m vs +0.3% expected Average hourly earnings 3.1% y/y vs +2.9% expected Average weekly hours 34.4 vs 34.4…
Prior month -68.3K Details: Employment change −4,700 vs +13,600 expected. Prior −68,000. Unemployment rate 6.7% vs 6.5% expected. Prior 6.5%. Employment rate 60.5% vs 60.6% in September. Average hourly wages +2.2% year over year vs +2.3% in September, before seasonal adjustment. Full time employment -18.1K vs -35.4K last month Part Time employment 13.4K v -32.9k last month October components…
What's expected: Consensus estimate +65K (range +50K to +125K) September +29K August +133K July -10K Private consensus estimate +64K Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.2% vs 4.2% prior Participation rate 61.8% prior Prior underemployment U6 prior 7.6% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +2.9% y/y vs +3.0% prior Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.1% prior Avg weekly hours exp 34.4 vs 34.4 prior…
The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the…
Articles: Zcash resists crypto market selloff as network upgrade goes live. What's next? US-Iran uncertainty keeps the downside in oil limited as markets await further developments Eurozone retail sales fall 0.7% in September, signalling weakening consumer demand Risk-off wave hits Bitcoin as tech stocks lead global selloff. What's next? Fed's Williams says US economy remains resilient,…
Retail sales m/m -0.7% vs -0.1% expected Prior +0.1% Retail sales y/y +0.4% vs +0.6% expected Prior +0.8% Full report Eurozone retail sales declined more than expected in September, falling 0.7% m/m. Germany recorded the largest monthly decline, with retail sales falling 2.0%. The EU-wide figure also weakened, dropping 0.6% m/m. The decline was primarily driven by non-food products, where sales…
US Democrats are reportedly targeting President Trump's tariffs on Canada as the first step towards rolling back parts of his administration's trade policy. Senator Wyden said there is overwhelming support for repealing tariffs on Canadian products. Meanwhile, BoC Governor Macklem said he remains optimistic about lower US tariffs but cannot rule out further escalation before trade conditions…
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other that a couple of low-tier releases like the Swiss consumer confidence and the Eurozone retail sales. The data won't change anything for the respective central banks, so the market reaction will be muted. The focus remains on the fallout from the US midterm elections and the US-Iran situation. The rout in tech stocks…
Nasdaq 100 suffers worst day since 2020 Magnificent 7: What are the technicals telling traders for each of those companies him WTI crude oil settles at $90.52, up 2.72% as buyers defend key support Non-farm payrolls preview: October numbers show a skew Europe Close: AI and chip liquidation drags equities lower in US, but Europe is mixed. Bitcoin falls with risk off sentiment. The price is testing…
I spoke to Reuters earlier today about the state of markets and my comments boiled down to this: "There are two paths Trump can go down - he can double down on unpopular trade wars or he can listen to the electorate and change course," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at investingLive. That's the crossroads we are at right now and I think it shows some of the tension in markets. An…
The Independent reports that Marco Rubio "is on resignation watch from both sides of the Atlantic in the expectation he will quit to lauch a bid to be the next US President". The report cites "senior party sources in the US and senior figures in the UK government" and notes that he was plotting his exit even before the disasterous midterms. Rival JD Vance already distanced himself from Trump by…
Prior was +1.4% Unit labor costs -0.7% vs +0.6% expected Prior unit labor costs +1.2% On the face of it, these look strong disinflationary but these numbers are largely ignored by policymakers because they're notoriously volatile and hard to measure. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its Productivity and Costs report quarterly. A preliminary estimate comes out roughly five weeks after…
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